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Friday, October 5

5th Oct - EU Open: Payroll Friday

This is a joke. Free consulting to commentators who notice what I edited.
Payrolls are clearly the day's most important number (presidential elections coming in US). French, Italian and Spanish prime ministers are meeting in the evening. I expect a risk-positive day based on technicals and sentiment. 

I am currently purging my postings so that the "less immediate" articles get pushed to the weekend posts. Any wishes or complaints?

Previously on MoreLiver’s

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News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

Morning Briefing (Asia): BOE and ECB Keep Rates UnchangedBNY Mellon
Just how brightly the red lights are flashing is open to debate, but recent forecasts for Germany are all telling a similar tale

Asia Today: USDJPY holds gains despite no BOJ easing (this time)Saxo Bank
Asia was in pause mode ahead of tonight’s non-farm payroll report with only the BOJ meeting to monitor. The BOJ left rates unchanged in a unanimous decision, did not announce any new monetary easing steps, but cut its assessment of the economy.

3 Numbers to Watch: US Nonfarms, DE factory orders & CAD jobsSaxo Bank
Nonfarm payroll figures are out today, and with the Fed paying special attention to unemployment and offering open-ended QE, this number will certainly be one to watch out for. German factory orders and Canadian unemployment are also due.

Market Preview: US Nonfarm Payrolls on tapSaxo Bank
European markets are expected to open higher Friday ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls data due later today which is expected to show an improvement for September. Markets are also eyeing Eurozone GDP and German factory orders data later today.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
FOMC minutes reveal that FOMC is moving towards formal Evans rule. Bank of Japan  refrained from adding stimulus but lowered its assessment of the economy. Market movers today: US non-farm payrolls and German factory orders. Rajoy, Hollande and Monti meet at 17:00 GMT

AamukatsausNordea (pdf)
EKP:n kokous ei tarjonnut paljoa uutta pureskeltavaa * Fed: korot pidetään alhaalla pitkään, jotta talous varmasti elpyisi * EURUSD tason 1.30 ylle, Brent-öljyn hinta nousi vahvimmin yli kolmeen kuukauteen

AamukatsausTapiola (pdf)
Osakkeet jatkoivat varovaista etenemistään päätyen nousuun USA:n kaupankäynnissä. EKP:n kokouksen anti vaatimatonta. Kriisimaiden tukipyyntö vaaditaan ennen EKP:n toimia. Viikko päätetään tänään markkinoiden kannalta merkittävään USA:n työmarkkinaraporttiin. Osakefutuurit nyt aamulla plussalla, indikoiden nousuavausta. Hyödykkeisiin sijoittavien ETC:iden kuukausiseuranta: Metallit kiinnostivat sijoittajia, kun keskuspankit elvyttävät. Suomalaisyhtiöistä suosikkimme Metso ja Outotec hyötyvät metallien hintojen noususta.

Morning Briefing (EU/US): Bring me sunshine BNY Mellon 
There are some silver linings out there ...


USA: Payrolls preview
US jobs report: 100k is the fine line – Nordea
September Employment Report Preview – A Dash of Insight
What to expect from Friday’s jobs report – WP

On The USD Reaction To Tomorrow's Payroll ReportZH
Tomorrow’s payrolls may be the most important economic release until the election. It seems very possible to us that the focus will be on the UR because of its political importance, rather than NFP, despite its economic importance.

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