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Monday, October 29

29th Oct - US "Open"

News from Europe getting bad again - where to find the 30bn for Greece, Spain's economy continues getting worse beyond expectations. US markets largely closed due to "bad weather". EURUSD getting near the bottom of its multiweek range.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups & Commentary
US Opening News And Market Re-Cap – Ransquawk / ZH
Frontrunning – ZH
Overnight Sentiment: Cloudy, If Not Quite Frankenstormy – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – alphaville / FT
Emerging N.Y. headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Today’s front pages – presseurop
Daily press summary – Open Europe

Morning MarketBeat: Hurricane Sandy Closes Markets – WSJ
Broker Note Briefing – WSJ

US session ahead
Pre-market Commentary – Marketwatch
Pre-Market Trading – CNNMoney
Pre-Market – NASDAQ
Earnings & Events – The Street
MarketCurrents – Seeking Alpha

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
Economic Calendar – Forexpros

What if the eurozone breaks up?Nordea (pdf)
The analysis explores four eurozone break-up scenarios: i) Greece leaves the euro, ii) several countries in difficulties leave, iii) Finland exits on its own accord, and lastly iv) the entire eurozone splits up into two or breaks up altogether.

Interview with Der Spiegel: Mario DraghiECB
conducted by Michael Sauga and Anne Seith on 22 October, published 29 October 2012

Money market charts du matinalphaville / FT
US prime money market funds increasing their exposure to eurozone banks for the third month in a row.

The first step in Europe’s banking union is achievable, but it won’t be
Eurozone leaders are firmly committed to a banking union, at least on paper. But do Member States agree on the current proposals? And what do these proposals leave out? This column argues that a dangerous combination of disagreements between Member States over contentious issues and pitfalls in the design of new institutions may well ensnare the Eurozone along its faltering path towards recovery.

Five minutes with Bjarne Corydon, Minister of Finance for Denmarkeuropp / LSE
“I don’t think it’s realistic that we will have a euro referendum in Denmark in the foreseeable future”

Norges Bank accepts lower money market ratesNordea
We believe Norges Bank will forecast a first hike in the second part of 2013. The main message will then be that Norges Bank is on hold.

Eurosceptic forces unable to capitalize in Finnish local electionsNordea

New Italian turbulence MacroScope / Reuters
European theme roundup: Italy, Greece and Spain.

Europe's Crisis Spawns Calls for a Breakup—of SpainWSJ
Catalans go to the polls Nov. 25 for a regional parliamentary election, and polls show pro-independence parties in front.

Rajoy Faces Bailout Split With Monti at Madrid MeetingBB
Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti and Spanish counterpart Mariano Rajoy may try to mask a growing divide over Europe’s new bailout strategy when they meet today.

Spain’s Pain Seen Intensifying as Slump Deepens PlightBB
Retail sales plummeting

Report: Troika suggests further debt write-down for Greeceeuobserver

Greek finance officials among suspected tax evaderseuobserver

Fact Book Italy Danske Bank (pdf)

Will the BoJ increase its asset purchase programme next week Kiron Sarkar / The Big Picture

A Hard Landing Down UnderAndy Xie / The Big Picture
Australia’s bubble is built on China’s, and with no major stimulus in the offing, it may suffer a financial crisis in 2013

Antipodean intervention (probably) alphaville / FT
A suggestion that the Reserve Bank of Australia is practicing some ‘passive intervention’ to hamstring the Aussie’s strength a touch.

China to NY Times: Plagiarise this!beyond brics / FT
Even by the standards of plagiarism-prone Chinese media, it takes a certain brazenness to perpetrate such an extensive copy-and-paste job when preaching about journalistic integrity.

Questioning China’s governancealphaville / FT
It turns out there's a right and a wrong kind of corruption, and China's economy has somehow managed to grow rapidly despite having the latter kind.

New Financial Forecasts: Still waiting for Spain and Greece…. Nordea (pdf)
or read the summary.

Time to take some risk off the tableHumble Student
The bottom line is the current environment is a recipe for continued volatility and choppiness. Bulls have much to look forward to and bears are anticipating a transition to a market where earnings matter more - and the earnings outlook is disappointing.

FX Comment: time for break-out?Nordea

What's on Your Radar Screen?Marc to Market
The US dollar is posting modest gains across the board, the notable exception of the Japanese yen, on the back of what appears to be largely a risk-off day.

Weekly Market CommentaryHussman Funds

Press release: Basel Committee report to G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors on Basel III implementationBIS

Lehti: Suomi uhkaa menettää oikeaa rahaa Kreikalle ensi kertaa TalSa

Kuluttajien luottamus painui miinukselle lokakuussa Tilastokeskus

EU:n on pantava suu säkkiä myöten HS

Suhdanteiden alamäki jatkuu – EK
-Suhdannekuva on synkentynyt kesän ja syksyn aikana laajalla rintamalla. Kaikkien toimialojen luottamusindikaattorit ovat olleet laskusuunnassa. Lokakuussakin lasku jatkui rakentamista lukuun ottamatta, kertoo EK:n johtava ekonomisti Penna Urrila.

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