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Wednesday, October 24

24th Oct - US Close: Fed Slept, My views

After the Fed’s non-event, eyes turn to the  EU-discussions on Friday, where Greece’s continued bailout payments are probably confirmed. Tomorrow UK’s GDP and US durable goods orders, Friday sees several less important European numbers and the main event, US GDP. Oh yes, click the charts below for larger versions.

SPX weekly shows that the countertrend corrections (minibears), especially after well-defined toppish formations, tend to be deeper than what we've seen so far. The market has kept above the 1400 support, but I expect a visit to 1350-level - that would make the correction deep enough to put the markets on better track, while still keeping to the 2010-2012 bullish zig-zagging, and around the 1350-levels markets would start expecting someone (Greenspan?) to show up and promise more QE-madness or something.

My bearish call would be changed if the market decides to take out the 1420-resistance.

EURUSD is still sitting in its daily range pattern - more than the stock market, this pair is mostly determined by the relative printing rate of the two central banks.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups and Commentary
Markets – Between The Hedges
The Closer – alphaville / FT

Roundup: No change at the FEDKiron Sarkar / The Big Picture
Tomorrow’s Tape: Jobless Claims, Apple Earnings – WSJ
US Summary: Coordinated Dump In Stocks, Bonds, Commodities And Crude – ZH 

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
Economic Calendar – Forexpros

Paying back the LTRO early… or notalphaville / FT
Pressure building on the front-end of Euribor contracts. Short positions might be stacking up, apparently. Why? It might be because there is speculation flitting about that European banks will begin to pay back some of their LTRO cash in the near future. Something not everyone thinks is likely to happen.

As member states have to negotiate both externally with the EU and internally with their own regions, European integration is reaching a point of exhaustioneuropp / LSE
As the leaders of the major EU member states grope towards a solution to the eurocrisis Bob Hancké looks at the impact of the rise of challenges posed to member states’ governments from regions such as Catalonia, Scotland and Flanders. National governments now not only have to negotiate with the EU and other member states, but their own increasingly restless regions and populations.

Speech Mario Draghi: Opening statement at Deutscher BundestagECB
Hyper Mario Draghi SpeaksZH
Full Mario Draghi Pro-Inflation Speech To GermanyZH

Flash Eurozone PMI Composite at 45.8, 40-month lowGlobal Macro Monitor
(a good overview, more in my previous post)

Germany wants Greece to hand over more budget controlalphaville / FT
It looks like Germany has decided that Greece hasn’t given up quite enough of its sovereignty yet.

Preview: Nothing Now, Moar Later – ZH
  (discusses the Dec meeting, so worth it)
A complete non-event – focus now on December meeting – Nordea
A non-event – Danske Bank (pdf)
Statement – alphaville / FT

Dylan Grice: The Bull Case for Safe HavensThe Big Picture
“Government securities are the default safe haven in times of heightened risk aversion. But what happens when Government finances are the cause of the tension? Where are the safe havens then?”

Rising Volatility, Euro Out of StepMarc to Market
We have highlighted the contradiction between the low implied volatility and the large number of event risks on the horizon.

The World In Three ChartsZH
Expectation indices for China, US and Europe. Good quickie.

Gawd but the currency wars are boringalphaville / FT
Sure we’ve got plenty of rhetoric, a Swiss franc floor and QE — but FX volatility is touching recent lows.

Bernanke Officially Declares; Monetizing Debt; War Games in ChinaHistorySquared

Euroliittovaltiossa Suomi maksaisi jopa 8 miljardia vuodessa ja leikkaisi omia menojaan saman verran – laskelma yleisön pyynnöstä tyhmyri

IMF tutki: mitä jos pankit eivät loisikaan enää meidän rahaamme?Ville Iivarinen / US Puheenvuoro

Suomen Emu historiaa eli kuinka meistä tehtiin hulttiopolitiikan maksajiaHeikki Porkka / US Puheenvuoro

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