Google Analytics

Sunday, October 14

14th Oct: Weekender: Europe, US, China

The week was dominated by the European crisis with suggestions of Spanish bailout, while the plans for an ever-closer union are made in the background. Greece seems to be getting more time, so it is of less immediate interest to markets right now. In US, the fiscal cliff, elections and possible trouble with corporate earnings are the most important themes.

Previously on MoreLiver’s

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter or Facebook 

The Truth About SovereigntyProject Syndicate
If the EU's future is now in doubt, it is because sovereignty stands in the way once again. By denying that European integration hinges on restraining national sovereignty, Europe’s leaders are misleading voters, delaying the Europeanization of democratic politics, and raising the costs of the ultimate reckoning.

Should Europe reconsider its supervisory governance? Two is better than
Supervisory failures were key to the 2008 financial crisis. This column argues that supervisory governance has improved but that more is needed. The reforms should include a separation of macro- and micro-supervision since this allows for checks and balances that complement and strengthen governance.

'We're ready to walk out on Europe': Prime Minister's closest ally Michael Gove sparks EU furore with dramatic admissionDaily Mail
Education Secretary has told friends that he would vote to leave if there was a referendum today on whether the UK should cut its ties with Brussels…He has discussed his views in detail with David Cameron

What do Henry Kissinger, Le Duc Tho, Yasser Arafat, President Obama, And The European Union Have In Common?Testosterone Pit
Maybe the Norwegian Nobel Committee ran out of good candidates for this year’s Novel Peace Prize and didn’t want to transfer the money to the Main Fund, as they’d done in the past. So they handed it to the European Union, which triggered an avalanche of snickering and mocking. It wasn’t exactly an obvious choice. Its government is engaged in a phenomenal power grab, and its sub-group, the Eurozone, is mired in an extraordinarily screwed-up debt crisis that has led to bloody protests in the streets.

Euro area labour markets and the crisisECB (pdf)

EU Cohesion spending: policy can deliver what economic research cannotbruegel

While public attention is focused on the eurozone crisis, EU Member States and the European Parliament are locked in a struggle over reforming the Common Agricultural PolicyEuropp / LSE

Gauging the effects of fiscal stimulus packages in the Euro areaECB (pdf)

Measuring Sovereign Bond Spillover in Europe and the Impact of Rating NewsCNB (pdf)

BizDaily: The City of LondonBBC (mp3)
For centuries the city of London has been a key centre of world trade, but four years ago today it was humbled. As the financial crisis raged, the British government poured half a trillion pounds into the nations failing banks. Four years on - has Britain retained its place at the centre of world finance?

Spain’s Unfinished Transition From Dictatorship To DemocracyTestosterone Pit

Spanish aid request from euro zone seen in NovemberReuters
Spain could ask for financial aid from the euro zone next month and if it does the request would likely be dealt with alongside a revised loan program for Greece and a bailout for Cyprus in one big package, euro zone officials said.

A Grexit delayed if not deniedalphaville / FT
Official sector, including IMF, have become more understanding – but Greece will still run out of money and be denied bailout payments in the future according to Citi.

Euro zone mulls new ways to cut Greek debt mountainReuters
Euro zone officials are considering new ways to reduce Greece's huge debts because delays to reforms by Athens and continued recession have put the target of a debt to GDP ratio of 120 percent in 2020 out of reach, euro zone officials said.

Greece poised to leave euro, Swedish finance minister saysThe Telegraph


The United States Federal Reserve’s decision to undertake a third round of quantitative easing, or QE3, has raised three important questions. Will QE3 jump-start America’s anemic economic growth? Will it lead to a persistent increase in risky assets, especially in US and other global equity markets? Finally, will its effects on GDP growth and equity markets be similar or different?

Seven Varieties of DeflationJohn Mauldin / The Big Picture
One of the questions I (and other analysts) get asked most frequently is whether I think there is deflation or inflation in store for the US. My quick answer is “Yes.” A brief answer is that we are in a deflationary period and have been for over 30 years, but like all cycles it will come to an end. A great deal of the “when” depends on how the US deals with its deficit following the election.

The US Fiscal 'Moment': Cliff, Slope, Or Wile E. Coyote?ZH
Slides and text from GS and BoAML.

Trickle-down central bankingFree exchange / The Economist
Incidentally, suppose that Mr Bernanke and his colleagues are successful at boosting home values. In that case, the Fed’s stated policy seems uncannily similar to the one that got us into this mess.

U.S. Monetary Policy and International Implications FED
Chairman Ben S. Bernanke at the "Challenges of the Global Financial System: Risks and Governance under Evolving Globalization," A High-Level Seminar sponsored by Bank of Japan-International Monetary Fund, Tokyo, Japan

In their own words (China, the Fed, economic team, etc)Free Exchange / The Economist
Comparing Obama and Romney

On China's TransitionZH
Stratfor’s short video comment

Courts With Chinese CharacteristicsForeign Affairs
China's legal system is more formalized and better functioning than many realize. Still, given the Chinese Communist Party's lock on judicial power, the country still has work to do.

China’s export growth accelerated in SeptemberASA

China Monetary Statistics for September 2012ASA

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter or Facebook