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Thursday, October 25

25th Oct - US Open: Mixed Europe

UK’s GDP better than expected, recession over – but no reason to be too cheerful. ECB released latest lending figures, and they were low – money supply figures came in below expectations. The Greek bailout III is already almost certain, with leaked details on FT. Eyes now on the US durable goods orders, followed by the official agreement on Greece and US GDP tomorrow. 

I'm expecting rising trouble with the European banking union plans: FT points out how unhappy Germany is. EURUSD and SPX are bouncing between clear technical levels, with an inclination to test the downside.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups & Commentary
US Opening News And Market Re-Cap – Ransquawk / ZH
Frontrunning – ZH
Overnight Sentiment – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – alphaville / FT
Emerging N.Y. headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Today’s front pages – presseurop
Daily press summary – Open Europe
  Confusion over two-year bailout extension for Greece; Handelsblatt: Extension would cost an additional €16-20bn

Morning MarketBeat: Stocks Struggle to Shake Slide – WSJ
Broker Note Briefing – WSJ
A Few Notes on FX – Marc to Market
The 6th Time is a Charm for Stock Futures? – TF Market Advisors

US session ahead
Pre-market Commentary – Marketwatch
Pre-Market Trading – CNNMoney
Pre-Market – NASDAQ
Earnings & Events – The Street
MarketCurrents – Seeking Alpha

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
Economic Calendar – Forexpros

“Cancelling” QE debt alphaville / FT
 Bank of
England’s governor on canceling government bonds acquired by the central banks

Chart of the week: The real test of the eurobruegel
The single most pressing threat to the integrity, and perhaps also to the existence, of the euro is the depth of the recession in southern European member states

The battle for the Sparkassen beginsBrussels blog / FT
This issue has always been a potential dealbreaker: how will
Germany’s politically powerful network of small public banks — or Sparkassen — sit under the bailiwick of a single bank supervisor? Until now we’ve mainly seen diplomatic shadow-boxing on the matter. But that fight is beginning in earnest.

Sweden: The Riksbank signals further easeningNordea

What inflation?alphaville / FT
Euroland M3 coming in below expectations and dropping again to 2.7.

ECB: Lending to euro zone private sector falls in SeptemberReuters

ECB: Deposits in Greek, Spanish banks rise in SeptReuters
Consumers and firms put money back into Spanish and Greek banks in September, European Central Bank data showed, ending a run of declines driven by concerns about both countries' finances.

GDP figures show Britain's double-dip recession is over – The Telegraph
U.K. Economy Surges 1% as Britain Exits Recession – BB
Those UK GDP figs… – alphaville / FT
Olympic party ended UK recession – Nordea
Not a 'spectacular' recovery, but there are reasons to be cheerful – The Telegraph
Catalan MEPs ask for EU help against Spanish armyeuobserver
Four MEPs have asked the EU commission to tell Spain it cannot use military force against Catalonia.

Spain’s Bad Bank Seen as Too Big to Work: MortgagesBB
Spain’s efforts to sell as much as 90 billion euros ($117 billion) of toxic property assets it uses to create a bad bank from lenders that take state aid will be constrained by the size and inability to provide credit to potential buyers, adding to the risk of taxpayer losses.

Spain Must Aid Regions as Madrid Bonds Shunned, Official SaysBB
Andalusia, the region that is the third-biggest contributor to Spain’s economy, called on the government to find new “formulas” to fund the 17 semi- autonomous states after Madrid was shut out of debt markets.

ECB Is Said to Push Bankia Losses as Spain Purges AssetsBB
European authorities are pushing Bankia (BKIA) group to impose losses on junior debtholders as Spain purges a banking system clogged with about 180 billion euros ($234 billion) of bad real estate assets, people familiar with the talks said.

Spanish funding outlook improvedNordea
Spanish bank deposits rose for the first time in September, while foreign investors have reportedly been more active in Spanish bond auctions lately. Overall then, market pressure is not a particularly strong argument calling for a quick aid request by the Spanish government – political considerations currently play a bigger role.

Portugal: IMF Completes Fifth Review, Approves €1.5 Billion DisbursementIMF

Greekileaks: German-backed plan for Greek bailoutThe World / FT
Greekileaks 2: The new draft MoUs for AthensBrussels blog / FT
With Athens and the so-called “troika” of international lenders close to a deal on an overhauled bailout that would extend the programme by two years, the focus today shifts to Brussels, where talks begin on round two of the revised Greek rescue: how to pay for it

JPY View: Years of strength. Over.Nordea (pdf)
JPY strengthening over the past years can be justified by many factors – unwinding of carry trades post Lehman shock, declining return abroad (proxy USD yields), persistent current account surpluses…But there are signs that trends are turning forwards a weaker JPY, not only months but also years ahead.

Things That Make You Go Hmmm…Grant Williams / The Big Picture
The most excellent long-form market newsletter

Eurokriisi vaikeuttaa Maastrichtin kriteerien tulkintaaNordea

Katainen avaa ovea pankkien tukemiselleTalSA
Pääministeri Jyrki Kataisen mukaan pysyvän kriisirahaston EVM:n varoja voitaisiin käyttää tapauskohtaisesti Irlannin ja Espanjan pankkien tukemiseen. Syyskuussa valtiovarainministeri Jutta Urpilainen painotti, että EVM voisi pääomittaa pankkeja vain tulevaisuuden vaikeuksissa.

Pääkirjoitus: Suomi vetäytyy, kun muu euroryhmä tiivistyyHS

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