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Monday, October 1

1st Oct - US Open: Critical month for Europe

Plenty of material, but that's the way we like it. New week, new month, new quarter. This month will either see the roadmap for fiscal and banking union presented to euroleaders. If the presentations suck and political leaders deem them to be unmarketable to their respective electorate, that's it for euro.(edit: Calendar page updated)

Previously on MoreLiver’s

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Roundups & Commentary
US Opening News And Market Re-Cap – Ransquawk / ZH
Frontrunning – ZH
Overnight Sentiment – ZH
  Record Eurozone Unemployment, 14th Consecutive PMI Contraction
The Lunch Wrap – alphaville / FT
Emerging N.Y. headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Today’s front pages – presseurop
Daily press summary – Open Europe
  Chris Leslie: Tensions between Eurozone federalism and national democracy ‘risk undermining the European settlement’; Douglas Alexander: Total consensus within Labour for EU membership

Morning MarketBeat: Welcome to the Fourth Quarter, Mind the Potholes – WSJ
Broker Note Briefing – WSJ
AM Dear Dairy: And They’re Off – Macro and Cheese
Market Drivers in the Week Ahead Marc to Market
  weakening global growth, policy responses, political developments 
The T Report: The Fourth QuarterTF Market Advisors

US session ahead
Pre-market Commentary – Marketwatch
Pre-Market Trading – CNNMoney
Pre-Market – NASDAQ
US Equity Preview – Bloomberg
Earnings & Events – The Street
MarketCurrents – Seeking Alpha

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

Euro Leaders Face October of Unrest After September RallyBB
Good themes and coming events-roundup

Analysis: ECB's "nuclear option" better as deterrent than weaponReuters
Buying unlimited quantities of bonds is sometimes described as a central bank's nuclear option, deploying an overwhelming force that threatens speculators with annihilation.

Another domino falls as Hollande pushes France into depressionThe Telegraph
If French President François Hollande thinks he can assuage the bond markets by dishing out tax-heavy austerity instead of genuine reform, he has been given very bad advice.

Thousands protest against French austerity budgeteuobserver
French President Francois Hollande faced his first serious public backlash after up to 50,000 lined the streets of Paris on Sunday in protest against his €37 billion austerity budget.

Wage stickiness or on insufficient adjustment in the euro areabruegel
This article studies labour cost adjustment in the euro area. We find that wages are sticky and nominal wages rarely fall except in the most severe crisis circumstances. Second, unit labour cost (ULC) reductions are often associated with significant increases in unemployment. Third, the relative adjustment is forecast to continue and accelerate during 2012/13. 

Euro area manufacturing PMIs point to slower contraction in SeptemberASA
Euro area unemployment rate at 11.4% in AugustASA

Sensible for Germany to leave euro, but they're not readyThe Telegraph
It is beginning to dawn on the Germans that if the euro holds together they’ll have to stump up more and more money.

The man who would be chancelloralphaville / FT
Peer Steinbrück, the man who would unseat Angela Merkel as German chancellor… Merkel’s former finance minister belongs to the centre ground of German politics but is on the right of his own party. He is seen as a budget disciplinarian but has supported introducing some form of jointly-guaranteed eurozone bonds to help solve the current crisis.

What If I Am Wrong About Europe?Mish’s
I have long stated the eurozone will breakup. Historically speaking, no currency union has ever survived in the absence of a political union.

As Europe’s South Spirals, North Fiddles and Chaos LoomsView / BB
European leaders need to get the banking union back on track, and work toward finding a way out of the downward spiral of budget cuts and shrinking output, such as the fiscal transfers we have advocated. Financial markets have shown extraordinary patience in recent months, perhaps believing that, in the end,
Europe will get its act together. The longer it takes, the more damage will be done.

EU Working to Resolve Difference on Bank Plan, Rehn SaysBB

Some preliminary thoughts on the stress tests for Spanish banks: lots of optimistic assumptions...Open Europe

Catalonia's growing calls for independence add to Spain's worsening euro crisis woesThe Telegraph
Catalonia is Spain's wealthiest region, and the growing euro crisis is fuelling demands for it to break away from Madrid.

Is China’s Communist Party Doomed?The Diplomat

A pause in export-led growth?alphaville / FT

China: PMI remained subdued in SeptemberDanske Bank (pdf)

China’s broken growth modelASA

Key Events In The Weeks AheadZH

New financial forecasts: To ask or not to ask? That is the questionNordea
We are keeping our financial forecasts largely unchanged; that implies mostly range-trading short-term for both bond yields, fx and commodities. (direct pdf)

On The Edge Of A RecessionThe Short Side of The Long
The bull case is still intact Humble Student
Mr. October’s Interesting ChartsGlobal Macro Monitor
Charting the major markets, good and quick.

Investment grade corporate bonds are priced to perfectionSober Look

(audio) BizDaily: Almost zeroBBC (mp3)
Do almost zero interest rates actually get an economy growing again? Business Daily hears from Japan's businesses - which have had twenty years of low interest rates. And one of the architects of the euro Otmar Issing says more integration is not the answer for Europe. Plus - Lucy Kellaway considers whether sheer dumb luck is the best aid to your career.

Olli Rehn – Brysselin BobrikovOlli Pusa / US Puheenvuoro

Liittovaltion ‘It Wasn’t Me’Juhani Huopainen / US Puheenvuoro

Kuuluisan niskalenkin kuva tarkentuuHenri Myllyniemi / US Puheenvuoro

Valuuttadevalvaatio+Inflaatio on terveellisempi vaihtoehto kuin sisäinen devalvaatio – lääketieteellisin perusteintyhmyri

Urpilaisen vaalihöpinät tästä vielä puuttuivatkinKolumni / MTV3

Urpilaisesta uusi ulkoministeri?Jyrki Virolainen

Eläkkeet AAA:n vakuutena?euroetana

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