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Monday, October 15

15th Oct - EU Open: Bounce from range's bottom

Plenty of material to open up the week. Both SPX and EURUSD are keeping the ranges and the Chinese positive news helped to reject the lows of the range for now. If you had a life during the weekend, take some time to review what I posted during the weekend.

Previously on MoreLiver’s
12.10 Weekender: Best of The Week

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News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT

Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

3 Numbers to Watch: US Retail Sales, Empire Manuf & Business InvSaxo Bank
US retail sales are expected to continue last month's momentum and report a significant expansion in September. The Empire Manufacturing survey is likely to show a rebound in manufacturing output, while US business inventories are also due to expand.

Asia Today: Better China data fails to ignite risk appetiteSaxo Bank
The weekend saw Chinese trade data released with the trade surplus widening to $27.67 bln from $26.66 bln with a rebound in imports (+2.4 percent y/y from -2.6 percent last) matched by better exports. AUD jumped but failed to hold gains

Market Preview: US Retail Sales on tapSaxo Bank
European markets are expected to open mostly lower Monday as investors continue to weigh the possibility of Spain seeking a bailout at the EU summit scheduled later this week. Investors are awaiting US retail sales data due later today.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
In China exports and money supply growth beat expectations and inflation eased marginally in line with expectations – less pressure for imminent easing * US Treasury Department postpones foreign exchange policy review * Spanish Finance Minister does not appear in a rush to ask for assistance * Market movers today: USD Retail sales, Empire manufacturing, Q3 earnings: Citigroup

AamukatsausNordea (pdf)
Kiinan ulkomaankauppa piristyi – kolmannen kvartaalin kasvu hidastunee * EU:n huippukokouksesta ei odoteta merkittäviä päätöksiä * USA:n kuluttajaluottamus piristyi – alkavan viikon talousluvuista rohkaisevia uutisia?

AamukatsausTapiola (pdf)
Edellisviikko päätyi perjantaina laskuun USA:n vahvasta kuluttajaluottamuksesta huolimatta.
Kiinasta pitkästä aikaa odotuksia vahvempaa dataa viikonloppuna. Aamulla tulosvaroitukset Talvivaaralta ja Cargoteciltä sekä posari Aktialta. Sijoitussuositusten ja -teemojen seuranta:
Metso suurin pettymys, kokonaisuus lievästi plussalla.

Morning Briefing (EU/US): A look behind the curtainBNY Mellon
A fundamental force behind the EUR’s past performance is in a state of flux


Euro zone waiting gameMacroScope / Reuters
High-up euro zone sources in Tokyo told us that Spain could ask for aid next month at the same time as the Greek bailout package and one for Cyprus are sorted out. All roads appear to be pointing to the Nov. 12 meeting of euro zone finance ministers. However, there are other voices saying that Spain could hold off until the new year.

US housing update: shrinking inventories – Sober Look

China: Credit and money supply expanding fasterDanske Bank (pdf)

China: Encouraging exports, but imports remain subduedDanske Bank (pdf)

China CPI inflation falls to 1.9% yoy in SeptemberASA

China's trade surplus up on iPhones and Christmas presentsSober Look

Temporary improvement in China’s exports, downside pressures remainNordea

FX Comment: if anything – blame politicsNordea

Suggestions for bulls and bearsHumble Student
The stock market has been consolidating in a sideways pattern for the past several weeks. While I am still inclined to give the bull case the benefit of the doubt, my analysis of relative leadership reveals sectoral leadership from both aggressive high beta groups and defensive sectors of the stock market.

Will the EZ/China rely less on austerity measures in coming monthsKiron Sarkar / The Big Picture

The Punch Line: All The Charts That's Fit To PrintZH
Economies are not looking that hot.

Out Of The 'Liquidity Trap' Frying Pan And Into The 'Liquidity Lure' FireZH
Via Citi's Credit Strategy team

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