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Tuesday, October 9

9th Oct - IMF World Economic Outlook

The regular European morning briefing will be delayed today due to my commitments - but do not despair! The IMF's updated reports are out and by the time you've finshed with these, I'll be back!

Previously on MoreLiver’s

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IMF Sees Heightened Risks Sapping Slower Global RecoveryIMF
IMF revises forecast down, global growth projected at 3.3 percent this year. World trade slumps, hurting emerging markets, developing countries. Prospects could improve if clouds over euro area, U.S. “fiscal cliff” are lifted

World Economic Outlook: Coping with High Debt and Sluggish GrowthIMF

Global Economy: Some Bad News and Some HopeiMFdirect

Growth to Slow in East Asia and Pacific in 2012, But Domestic Demand Will Play Key Role in Rebound Next YearThe World Bank

Fiscal MonitorIMF
With growth weakening in many parts of the world and downside risks on the rise, fiscal consolidation remains challenging. However, considerable progress has been made in strengthening fiscal accounts following their sharp deterioration in 2008–09.


Time Not On Our SideiMFdirect

Tough Decisions Needed to Strengthen Financial Stability

Opening Remarks By Christine Lagarde, Managing DirectorIMF

Bank of Japan-IMF High-Level Seminar “Challenges of the Global Financial System: Risks and Governance under Evolving Globalization”


IMF Sees ‘Alarmingly High’ Risk of Deeper Global SlumpBloomberg

IMF cuts global growth forecast; prods Europe, U.S.Reuters
The IMF cut its global growth forecast on Tuesday for the second time since April and warned U.S. and European policymakers that failure to fix their economic ills would prolong the slump. 

IMF sees 'alarmingly high' risk of fresh global slumpThe Telegraph
The International Monetary Fund has slashed its growth forecast for large parts of the world economy and warned of a full-blown global slump if policymakers in Europe or the US mishandle serious threats.

IMF lowers growth forecastalphaville / FT

IMF Says Most Advanced Nations Making Progress Reducing DeficitsBloomberg

IMF Shakes Austerity Orthodoxy for New PragmatismView / Bloomberg 

The IMF Global Financial Stability Report: Restoring Confidence and Progressing on Reformsbruegel

The IMF's Lagarde Is Unaware What The IMF's Market-Moving Report ContainsZH

IMF Offers Bleak Assessment of Stalled RecoveryTIME

The Brics have taken an unhappy turnGideon Rachman / FT
Over the past three years, conventional wisdom divided the world’s major economies into two basic groups – the Brics and the sicks…But now something odd is happening. The Brics are in trouble. The nature of the problem in each nation is different. But there are also some broad difficulties that link them.

IMF: Eurozone unemployment to exceed that of Middle East and North AfricaSober Look

Transcript of a Press Briefing on the IMF Fiscal MonitorIMF

Transcript of a Press Conference on the Global Financial Stability Report IMF
Is the IMF pushing for an end to austerity?Brussels blog / FT

Underestimating Fiscal Policy MultipliersFatasmihov
It’s (austerity) Multiplier Failurealphaville / FT

Informal evidence suggests that the multipliers implicitly used to generate these forecasts are about 0.5. So actual multipliers may be higher, in the range of 0.9 to 1.7. So… why did the IMF (among others) get it so wrong on the fiscal multiplier?

Let go of the brakesFree exchange / The Economist

Many countries' tax and spending decisions are contributing to rising inequality, and are insufficiently targeted at cutting unemployment. But the most immediate problem is that consolidation in advanced countries is excessively pro-cyclical. 

IMF: politics could wreck EU bank union planeuobserver

If EU anti-crisis measures, such as the banking union, are not put in place right away "the forces of financial fragmentation [will] increase and become entrenched, capital holes in banking systems [will] expand and the intra-euro-area capital account crisis [will] spill outward ... [with] deleterious consequences for the rest of the world."

Prepare for probable disappointment, IMFalphaville / FT
The assumptions behind IMF’s growth forecasts are risky.

IMF fires euro zone broadsideMacroScope / Reuters

Slower and slowerFree exchange / The Economist

Deleveraging Shocks and the MultiplierKrugman / NYT

Multipliers: using theory and evidence in macroeconomicsmainly macro

Taking Stock: Public Finances Now Stronger in Many CountriesiMFdirect

European Banks Need To Sell Up $4.5 Trillion In Assets In Next 14 Months, IMF WarnsZH

The ECB-Driven Toxic Debt Loop At The Heart Of Europe's MiseryZH

IMF: eastern Europe, watch outbeyondbrics / FT

IMF warns of threat to EU banks from capital flightThe Guardian
Total assets of banks could shrink by trillions of dollars as money is taken out of peripheral eurozone countries

BizDaily: The outlook for growthBBC (mp3)
Business Daily discovers why the International Monetary Fund is growing ever more pessimistic about the outlook for the world economy. Has the potential for world growth been permanently harmed? But amongst the gloom there is one chink of light - unusually African economies have the most optimistic outlook. We report from West Africa on improving prospects for growth. 

Every unhappy peripheral is unhappy in its own wayFistful of Euros

The IMF game changeralphaville / FT
IMF has played bad cop to the global economy for generations now, enforcing austerity, conditionality and accountability wherever it goes. And, for the most part, it’s the emerging world that’s suffered most. Recanting on some of these closely held beliefs, especially now that the bitter medicine is predominantly being applied to the developed world, is awkward to say the least.

IMF Suddenly Decides It Might be OK to Loosen Austerity Tourniquets Now that Gangrene is Setting Innaked capitalism

The IMF and the GOPKrugman / NYT

IMF: Austerity is much worse for the economy than we thoughtWonkblog / WP

Robustness of IMF data scrutinizedGlobal Economy / FT

IMF Admits It Prescribed Wrong Medicine; Is IMF Short for I Must Fail?Mish’s 

Times Like This Are DifferentKrugman / NYT

More on multipliers: why does it matter?Not the treasury view

Multipliers: using theory and evidence in macroeconomicsmainly macro

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