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Friday, August 10

10th Aug - EU Open: Lower?

The current “dislocation” in the markets (EURUSD down, PIIGS yields up = risk-off but SPX up = risk.on) is again haunting the markets. Either the stock market is just slow to agree, like many times in the past. Or alternatively the stock market is really strong, as it brushes aside bad news and bad price developments in other assets. 

But…the divergences between the stock indices (S&P 500 up at top of range, Russel horizontal, Nasdaq above its recent range and transports weak) suggest to me that the market is overbought. 
After the strong performance since June, but directionless week, I expect a sell-off in the stock markets today.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT

TV: Bloomberg, BBC
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices


MORNING BRIEFINGS
Market Preview: French industrial output on tapSaxo Bank
European markets are likely to open lower Friday, and market participants are keeping a close eye on French industrial output data due today. Investor sentiment was bruised after data indicated the Chinese trade surplus unexpectedly narrowed.

Danske Daily Danske Bank (pdf)
S&P500 in longest rally since March after a minor gain. Market sentiment worsens after Chinese export collapsed in July. Japan’s industrial production dropped 1.5% y/y in June. No significant data releases today.

Morning Briefing: Under PressureBNY Mellon
Japan's DPJ must impress the electorate without imperilling its credit rating. What options does it have?

Aamukatsaus Nordea (pdf)
Kiinan talouden elpyminen viivästyy * Maailmantalouden hidastuminen uhka USA:n viennille * Brent-öljyn hinta nousi viidettä päivää, ero USA:n WTI-öljyyn vuoden huipputasolla

AamukatsausTapiola (pdf)
Markkinat jatkoivat eilen uneliasta etenemistään. Aamulla tunnelma muuttui negatiiviseksi Kiinan kauppatilastojen myötä. Kiinan vienti- ja tuontitilastot antoivat selkeä vahvistuksen siitä, että Kiinan talous on edelleen jatkanut hidastumistaan heinäkuussa. Aamun 2Q12-tuloskommentit: Finnair, HKScan, Nordic Aluminium, Stockmann, Stonesoft, Uponor, Wulff, YEI

Markkinakalenteri Nordnet


OTHER
Equity volatility lower but tail-end risk protection still sought – Saxo Bank

China’s trade data for July point to very weak external and domestic demands – ASA

China Monetary Statistics for July 2012 – ASA
New loans figures disappoint in July despite policy easing.

IN FINNISH
Asumisen kustannukset todella ovat räjähtäneet käsiin – Tyhmyri
Katainen MTV3:lle: Rahoitusmarkkinaveroon tarvitaan myös Ruotsi – TE
Asiantuntijat: Euro on turvallisuustekijä Suomelle – Taloussanomat
Jyrki Katainen: Tahdon uudenlaisen pankkivalvontaunionin – TE
Pankkivastainen puhuri tuntuu Suomessakin – HS

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