Google Analytics

Monday, August 6

6th Aug - EU Open: Curiosity

Market risk factors, source: Lighthouse IM
Good morning everyone and congratulations on the successful landing of the latest Mars rover. As someone said, let's hope they don't find any new bailout targets there. I will update the missing articles when they are published - several really good ones on Europe. See the Special: ECB WATCH for more.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Weekender (Europe, markets...)

Fri close: News roundup – Between The Hedges
Fri close Markets roundup – Between The Hedges

News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT

TV: Bloomberg, BBC
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

Market Preview: Eurozone investor confidence eyedSaxo Bank
The EUR is trading firmer against the majors this morning ahead of the release of the Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index. Meanwhile, investors also await Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s speech slated later in the day.

Danske DailyDanske Bank (pdf)
As there are no important economic  releases  in the calendar today the markets are likely to focus on comments from ECB members and European politicians in view of the debt crisis and the ECB meeting last week.

Morning Briefing: The ties that bindBNY Mellon
Germany is inextricably linked to those whom it would have linger on the cliff-edge

In Finnish:
Aamukatsaus Nordea (pdf)
Espanja vihjaisi avun tarpeesta myös valtiolle * Euroalueen vähittäismyynti kasvoi hieman * Öljyn hinta nousi eniten kuukauteen USA:n työllisyysdatan myötä

AamukatsausTapiola (pdf)
Osakemarkkina yltyi edellisviikon päätteeksi nousuralliin, kun USA:n työllisyysraportti yllätti positiivisesti ja markkinoilla keskityttiin vielä EKP:n mahdollisiin uusiin toimenpiteisiin.

Markkinakalenteri Nordnet

Venetian cunning of Draghi-Monti masterplan may save euro for now The Telegraph
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: So we enter the treacherous market month of August with Europe in limbo. The actors wait upon each other. World finance held hostage to a fiendishly complicated game of diplomatic chess.

Watching the ECB play chessmainly macro
What I cannot help reflecting on is the intellectual weakness of the position adopted by Draghi’s opponents. These opponents appear obsessed with a particular form of moral hazard

Debt crisis threatens to break up Europe The Telegraph
Philip Aldrick: Tensions within the eurozone over how to resolve the debt crisis are turning countries against each other and threatening to rip Europe apart, Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti has warned.

Euro elites should say if they could ever view single currency as a failureThe Telegraph
Roger Bootle: What conditions could convince the euro elites that the euro was a failure and if they can imagine such conditions, then what stops them from concluding that they exist now?

From Euro Area Summit to the periphery "bridge loan"Sober Look
a quick recap of major events in the Eurozone

Draghi breaks the ultimate euro tabooGavyn Davies / FT
Mr Draghi could simply have repeated the old line that the operation of the Target 2 system is enough to ensure that the euro can never fall apart. By admitting the reality that the system is no longer 100 per cent credible in the eyes of the market, the ECB president has invited investors to ask whether his proposed interventions are powerful enough to deal with problem he has raised.

Statement by the European Commission, the ECB and the IMF on GreeceIMF

The World from Berlin 'Vengeance for ECB Bond-Buying Will Be Bitter' Spiegel
Investors may not have liked what European Central Bank head Mario Draghi had to say on Thursday, but it was the clearest indication yet that a plan is finally taking shape to reduce borrowing costs for Spain and Italy. Germany remains wary, though, and commentators say the outcome could be disastrous.

Escalation of the Extortion Racket: Now It’s ‘The Dissolution Of Europe’ Not Just the EurozoneTestosterone Pit

All roads lead to a disintegration of the EuroLighthouse IM
Sooner or later, something has got to give. There are no good outcomes. Deleveraging of excessive debt levels hurts, especially if the country seen as imposing those conditions is doing relatively fine. A Euro-exit by
Germany, possibly together with the Netherlands, would be the least catastrophic “solution”, allowing the rest of Europe to regain competitiveness by weakening their Euro.

Will Stocks Soar to New Highs?Pension Pulse
longer report with bull and bear factors

Tale of Two Charts: S&P500 and Russell 2000Global Macro Monitor
Interesting divergence between the S&P500 and Russell 2000 in the month of July.   The S&P is in a classic short-term uptrend, making higher highs and higher lows since bottoming in early June.  The Russell, however, after making a short-term high in July broke its uptrend line and has been making lower highs.

Things that make you go hmmmGrant Williams / ZH
Excellent newsletter, plenty on ECB (or download the pdf)