Google Analytics

Tuesday, August 14

14th Aug - US Close

Previously on MoreLiver’s
US Open: Bored

Markets – Between The Hedges
The Closer – alphaville / FT
Market Commentary – A View From My Screens
Tyler’s US Summary – ZH
  S&P 500 Futures 'Plunge' 1.25 Points - Most In 10 Days!

TV: Bloomberg, BBC
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter or Facebook 

Source: WSJ

German Courts Could Say ‘Yes,’ ‘No’ – Or ‘Maybe’MarketBeat / WSJ

The Tragedy of the Euro Philipp Bagus / QFinance

The Financial Decline In Europe ContinuesMark Grant / ZH

Eurosystem Central Banks and the TARGET2 Debt DebateJohn Whittaker / QFinance

Germany 6% Current Account Surplus a "Threat to the Continent" Says EU Commission; Solution is Gold Coupled With Eurozone BreakupMish’s

Grexit or Brexit - is Britain going to leave the EU?euobserver

What the Habsburg Empire can tell us about breaking up the euro zone Wonkblog / WP
In fact, he argues, if even one country left — whether a troubled country like Greece or rich country like Finland — that would trigger a chain reaction that would eventually split the whole euro zone: “The exit of any single country from the EMU, at the present time when large imbalances have been accumulated, would likely lead to a bank run, which would cause the EMU payments system to break down and with it the EMU itself.”  (the article is here, also full pdf)

The ECB's end of the bargain Free exchange / The Economist
The inflation obsession is leaving the central bank more involved in the economy and more politically overextended than it would be if it focused on maintaining stable growth in demand.

Hedge Funds Capitulate on European ShortsBB

France Beats Expectations With 0% Growth; Eurozone GDP Sank .2% – Mish’s
Euro area economy contracted by 0.2% in Q2 2012 – ASA
Eurozone slides deeper into recession, Germany grows – euobserver

Spanish Bank Borrowings From ECB Continue Parabolic RiseZH
TARGET2 replacing other sources of funding for Bank of SpainSober Look

Is Rajoy Serious or is He Just Flirting?Marc to Market
Rajoy himself continues to keep his card close to his vest. After meeting with the King earlier, Rajoy said that his decision still depends on knowing how the mechanism will work and the new conditions associated with ECB bond purchases.

Rebound in retail sales should be brief – Danske Bank (pdf)
Retail Sales increased 0.8% in July – Calculated Risk
A Surprisingly Strong Retail Sales Report For July – The Capital Spectator
Positive Retail Sales Report Isn’t Winning Over Skeptics – MarketBeat / WSJ
Retail Sales Good for Reality, Bad for QE Trade, Gold – MarketBeat / WSJ
US Retail Sales – BNY Mellon
Retail sales bounce after 3 mo’s of declines – The Big Picture
Mystery Of July Retail Sales "Beat" Solved: It Is All In The "Seasonal Adjustment" – ZH
Praises For The Retail Sales From Bank of America And Goldman – ZH
Market Reaction: Gold/FX/TSYs Signal QE-Off, Equities Still Believe – ZH

Asset Class Correlations in 2012Bespoke
If we compare the correlations so far in 2012 to the correlations over the past ten years, we see that the inverse correlations between the long bond and stocks as well as the dollar and stocks have gotten more extreme.  Both Telecom and Utilities have seen their correlations with the S&P 500 and the other eight sectors drop quite a bit as well.

What Happened The Last Two Times VIX Closed Below 15%?ZH
Following the two times that VIX first closed below 15%, the S&P 500 has suffered from a 5.25% and 7.75% plunge in the following two months - and each time saw a quick post-VIX-plunge pop in stocks that provided better entry levels for shorts. High Yield credit also stumbled hard widening 80 and 150bps respectively.

Update: The Citigroup Economic Surprise IndexPragCap

The Dismal Earnings SeasonThe Big Picture

In Search Of Lost DemandFistful of Euros
Why is the global economy hamstrung by heavy debts and weak banks? Or put another way, why doesn’t deleveraging happen, and the weight of debt reduce, and why doesn’t the economy expand so the weak banks can once more become robust and healthy ones? Short answer, it’s the demand side stupid!

Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950 - 2010: Literature Survey, Data, and Stylized FactsIMF
The first complete dataset of sovereign restructuring cases, covering the six decades from 1950–2010; it includes 186 debt exchanges with foreign banks and bondholders, and 447 bilateral debt agreements with the Paris Club. We present new stylized facts on the outcome and process of debt restructurings, including on the size of haircuts, creditor participation, and legal aspects. In addition, the paper summarizes the relevant empirical literature, analyzes recent restructuring episodes, and discusses ongoing debates on crisis resolution mechanisms, credit default swaps, and the role of collective action clauses.

Defying gravityFree exchange / The Economist
The tricky thing about Japan is that if the end really is inevitable, markets ought to anticipate that and bring it about long before Japan actually hits hard limits on domestic borrowing. And so far, that hasn't happened. Potential triggers for a flip in the equilbrium (downgrades, disasters) have come and gone without having the anticipated effect. But as they say one goes bankrupt very slowly, then all at once.

‘Don’t be a hero – start from zero’alphaville / FT
Matt King, Citi credit strategist, strikes again in a new presentation — this time on capital preservation and making ‘risky’ assets ‘safe’.

Viron terveydenhuollon it-projekti maksoi 11 miljoonaa, Suomessa jopa puoli miljardia TIVI
lisäksi: HUS:in tulevan järjestelmäprojektin on arvioitu tulevan maksamaan 10 vuoden aikana jopa 1,3–1,8 miljardia euroa.

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter or Facebook