Plenty on the ECB's "double secret" plan + the latest Finnish headlines - again talking about complete side issues. I am getting nervous about the SPX - I guess the recent epic low-vol bull trend channel will be broken soon to the downside. It would be illogical to be bearish on Spanish bonds and bullish on SPX - so I guess there will be a correction soon. EURUSD target still arond the 1.26 level, but any deterioration in Spanish bonds would quickly turn the currency pair down as well.
Previously
on MoreLiver’s:
Roundups & Commentary
US Opening News And Market Re-Cap –
Ransquawk / ZH
Frontrunning
– ZH
The Lunch
Wrap – alphaville
/ FT
Emerging
N.Y. headlines – beyondbrics
/ FT
Today’s
front pages – presseurop
Daily press
summary – Open
Europe
Morning
MarketBeat: Stocks Struggle With Multiyear Highs in Sight – WSJ
Broker Note
Briefing – WSJ
Morning
Take-Out – NYT
Overnight
Summary – ZH
AM Dear
Dairy: Back on Track – Macro
and Cheese
– Marc to
Market
When Doves Cry – TF MarketAdvisors
US session ahead
Pre-market
Commentary – Marketwatch
Pre-Market
Trading – CNNMoney
Pre-Market
– NASDAQ
US Equity Preview – Bloomberg
Earnings
& Events – The
Street
MarketCurrents
– Seeking
Alpha
Reference
Debt
crisis: live – The
Telegraph
The Euro
Crisis Blog – WSJ
FX Options
Analytics – Saxo
Bank
European
10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices
EUROPE
A Dutch election primer – Open
Europe
On 12 September, elections will take place in
the Netherlands. Due to the country's traditional role as an ally to Germany in monetary affairs, they will be watched with close attention
Greek Crisis Evasion to Fore as Merkel Hosts
Hollande – BB
Great Graphic: Labor (Im)Mobility – Marc
to Market
PMI & GDP
German
Quarterly Growth Driven by Exports, Households – BB
Euro-Area
Services, Manufacturing Contract for Seventh Month – BB
Euro area
flash PMIs show contraction continues – ASA
Some PMIs
went up, but the eurozone is still headed for recession – alphaville
/ FT
Eurozone
headed for recession as economic rot spreads – The
Telegraph
Euro area:
PMIs finally starting to turn better – Danske
Bank (pdf)
EUROPE: ECB
An ECB “CGBPP” – alphaville
/ FT
This one’s from Citi’s Global Economic Outlook
for August, which dubs the expected ECB operation the “Conditional Government
Bond Purchase Programme” (snappy!). Citi forecasts that the ‘CGBPP’ will concentrate on buying
T-bills. These are usually protected from losses during a sovereign debt
restructuring
Studies in pre-commitmentphobia: The case of
the ECB – alphaville
/ FT
What this meatless announcement also did was
give every analyst (and ahem… blogger) something to write/speculate about in an
otherwise quiet month.
ECB "May" Set "Secret" Bond
Caps, Bild Says Without Citing Anyone – ZH
What it really is, is merely a last step
desperation attempt by Mario to keep on talking down bond yields, since a month
into his "believe me" speech, the ECB has yet to do anything, let
alone secret or not so secret yield caps, let alone Spain demanding a bailout,
let alone the ECB even reaching a consensus with Germany and Bundesbank both
opposing any incremental money printing.
Moral Hazard? Better Than No Euro – WSJ
The ECB could well decide that it’s safer to
keep Greece in the euro than use it as an example. But if Greece continues to be
rescued, that will almost certainly create moral hazard.
ECB publishes consolidated banking data for
2011 – ECB
December-2011 Consolidated Banking Data (CBD), a data set that provides various
indicators about the EU banking system on a consolidated basis. It includes
indicators on all 27 EU Member States and the EU as a whole. The CBD are separately reported for three
sizes of domestic banks or banking groups
EUROPE: PIIGS
Instead of accepting further austerity and
reform, Italy could insist that Germany stop making these demands or leave the euro. France, Spain and the others would
then face a choice - back Italy and challenge Germany to leave the euro, or vice versa. We would then discover which
countries are truly in the core and which in the periphery of Europe.
Greek Q&A: Will they get the next tranche?
1: Key
events –BNY
Mellon
3: What is
the position of others in the Euro-area? –BNY
Mellon
Summary of
the above + FT’s comments
Greece has “one last chance” to meet its bail-out conditions, according to
Jean Claude Juncker in comments that crushed hopes for an imminent change of
strategy for Athens and the eurozone.
USA
The forgotten fiscal
threat – Free
exchange / The Economist
The Congressional Budget Office kindly reminded
us today of what has been manifestly obvious for months. If all the tax
increases and spending cuts now scheduled for year-end are allowed to occur,
the economy will tank.
FED
FOMC
Minutes: QE3 Is “Fairly Soon” – The
Daily Capitalist
US: FOMC
minutes - more easing coming up – Danske
Bank (pdf)
What is the
'Appropriate Monetary Policy'? – Economist’s
View
When the Inevitable is Evitable – Marc
to Market
In some ways, the market read the FOMC minutes
in a way that allows it to do what it wanted to do before the fact. Speculators were already reducing long dollar
exposure and reducing short bond futures positions. Both moves likely have more room to run ahead
of Bernanke's speech at Jackson Hole at the end of next week.
IN FINNISH
Otit vain pieniä askeleita ja olet liittovaltiossa – TalSa
PK-yritysten lainansaanti euromaissa – kuka vielä väittää,
että EKP harrastaisi löysää rahapolitiikkaa? – tyhmyri
EU-liittovaltio ja Suomi - sata ja kymppi – Olli
Pusa / US Puheenvuoro
Olli Rehn: Suomen mainetta pilattu europuheilla – IL
Tätä mieltä pääministeri Katainen on eurokeskustelusta – AL
Katainen varoittaa vahingoittamasta Suomen etua – YLE
Katainen euron kriisistä: "Epäreiluuden tunne on
oikeutettu" – HS
Rehn kertoo vain totuuden – Petri
Sarvamaa / US Puheenvuoro
Uutisanalyysi: Kriisinhoitoon tarvitaan uusi linja ja
viisasta talouspolitiikkaa – HS
Eurot kelpaavat kriisistä huolimatta – HS
Katainen kaipaa elinkeinoelämältä näkemyksiä EU:sta – IL
Ex-keskuspankkiiri varoittaa: Teknokraateille liikaa valtaa –
TalSa
EKP:n uusin ase: "salaiset" korkokatot? – TE