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Thursday, August 23

23rd Aug - US Open

Plenty on the ECB's "double secret" plan + the latest Finnish headlines - again talking about complete side issues. I am getting nervous about the SPX - I guess the recent epic low-vol bull trend channel will be broken soon to the downside. It would be illogical to be bearish on Spanish bonds and bullish on SPX - so I guess there will be a correction soon. EURUSD target still arond the 1.26 level, but any deterioration in Spanish bonds would quickly turn the currency pair down as well.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups & Commentary
US Opening News And Market Re-Cap – Ransquawk / ZH
Frontrunning – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – alphaville / FT
Emerging N.Y. headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Today’s front pages – presseurop
Daily press summary – Open Europe

Morning MarketBeat: Stocks Struggle With Multiyear Highs in Sight – WSJ
Broker Note Briefing – WSJ
Morning Take-Out – NYT
Overnight Summary – ZH
AM Dear Dairy: Back on Track – Macro and Cheese
– Marc to Market
When Doves Cry – TF MarketAdvisors

US session ahead
Pre-market Commentary – Marketwatch
Pre-Market Trading – CNNMoney
Pre-Market – NASDAQ
US Equity Preview – Bloomberg
Earnings & Events – The Street
MarketCurrents – Seeking Alpha

TV: Bloomberg, BBC
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

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A Dutch election primerOpen Europe
On 12 September, elections will take place in the Netherlands. Due to the country's traditional role as an ally to Germany in monetary affairs, they will be watched with close attention

Greek Crisis Evasion to Fore as Merkel Hosts HollandeBB

Great Graphic: Labor (Im)MobilityMarc to Market

German Quarterly Growth Driven by Exports, Households – BB
Euro-Area Services, Manufacturing Contract for Seventh Month – BB
Euro area flash PMIs show contraction continues – ASA
(video) Recession looms large for Germany after PMI data – Reuters
Some PMIs went up, but the eurozone is still headed for recession alphaville / FT
Eurozone headed for recession as economic rot spreads – The Telegraph
Euro area: PMIs finally starting to turn better – Danske Bank (pdf)

An ECB “CGBPP”alphaville / FT
This one’s from Citi’s Global Economic Outlook for August, which dubs the expected ECB operation the “Conditional Government Bond Purchase Programme” (snappy!). Citi forecasts that  the ‘CGBPP’ will concentrate on buying T-bills. These are usually protected from losses during a sovereign debt restructuring

Studies in pre-commitmentphobia: The case of the ECBalphaville / FT
What this meatless announcement also did was give every analyst (and ahem… blogger) something to write/speculate about in an otherwise quiet month.

ECB "May" Set "Secret" Bond Caps, Bild Says Without Citing AnyoneZH
What it really is, is merely a last step desperation attempt by Mario to keep on talking down bond yields, since a month into his "believe me" speech, the ECB has yet to do anything, let alone secret or not so secret yield caps, let alone Spain demanding a bailout, let alone the ECB even reaching a consensus with Germany and Bundesbank both opposing any incremental money printing.

Moral Hazard? Better Than No EuroWSJ
The ECB could well decide that it’s safer to keep Greece in the euro than use it as an example. But if Greece continues to be rescued, that will almost certainly create moral hazard.

ECB publishes consolidated banking data for 2011ECB
December-2011 Consolidated Banking Data (CBD), a data set that provides various indicators about the EU banking system on a consolidated basis. It includes indicators on all 27 EU Member States and the EU as a whole. The CBD are separately reported for three sizes of domestic banks or banking groups

Column: Italy refutes the idea it's on Europe's "periphery"Reuters
Instead of accepting further austerity and reform, Italy could insist that Germany stop making these demands or leave the euro. France, Spain and the others would then face a choice - back Italy and challenge Germany to leave the euro, or vice versa. We would then discover which countries are truly in the core and which in the periphery of Europe.

Greek Q&A: Will they get the next tranche?
1: Key events –BNY Mellon
2: What’s Germany’s position? –BNY Mellon
3: What is the position of others in the Euro-area? –BNY Mellon

Germany on Greece: a dramatis personaealphaville / FT
Summary of the above + FT’s comments

Athens in 'last chance' to meet its bail-out terms says Jean Claude JunckerThe Telegraph
Greece has “one last chance” to meet its bail-out conditions, according to Jean Claude Juncker in comments that crushed hopes for an imminent change of strategy for Athens and the eurozone.

The forgotten fiscal threat Free exchange / The Economist
The Congressional Budget Office kindly reminded us today of what has been manifestly obvious for months. If all the tax increases and spending cuts now scheduled for year-end are allowed to occur, the economy will tank.

FOMC Minutes: QE3 Is “Fairly Soon” – The Daily Capitalist
US: FOMC minutes - more easing coming up – Danske Bank (pdf)
What is the 'Appropriate Monetary Policy'? – Economist’s View

When the Inevitable is EvitableMarc to Market
In some ways, the market read the FOMC minutes in a way that allows it to do what it wanted to do before the fact.  Speculators were already reducing long dollar exposure and reducing short bond futures positions.  Both moves likely have more room to run ahead of Bernanke's speech at Jackson Hole at the end of next week. 

Otit vain pieniä askeleita ja olet liittovaltiossaTalSa

PK-yritysten lainansaanti euromaissa – kuka vielä väittää, että EKP harrastaisi löysää rahapolitiikkaa? – tyhmyri

EU-liittovaltio ja Suomi - sata ja kymppiOlli Pusa / US Puheenvuoro

Olli Rehn: Suomen mainetta pilattu europuheilla – IL

Stubb: Rehnin Suomi-kritiikki otettava nöyrästi vastaan – IL,  MTV3

Tätä mieltä pääministeri Katainen on eurokeskustelusta – AL

Katainen varoittaa vahingoittamasta Suomen etua – YLE

Katainen euron kriisistä: "Epäreiluuden tunne on oikeutettu" – HS

Rehn kertoo vain totuuden – Petri Sarvamaa / US Puheenvuoro

Uutisanalyysi: Kriisinhoitoon tarvitaan uusi linja ja viisasta talouspolitiikkaa – HS

Eurot kelpaavat kriisistä huolimatta – HS

Katainen kaipaa elinkeinoelämältä näkemyksiä EU:sta – IL

Ex-keskuspankkiiri varoittaa: Teknokraateille liikaa valtaa – TalSa

EKP:n uusin ase: "salaiset" korkokatot? – TE

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