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Friday, August 10

10th Aug - US Open: Bad China, Better US

So this week ends with worse than expected numbers from China, about as bad as expected from Europe and somewhat better than expected from US. After the previous lessons, no-one is yelling decoupling this time.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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US Opening News And Market Re-Cap – Ransquawk / ZH
Frontrunning – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – alphaville / FT
Emerging N.Y. headlines – beyondbrics /FT
Today’s front pages – presseurop
Daily press summary – Open Europe

Morning MarketBeat: Pessimism Starting to Wane – WSJ
Broker Note Briefing – WSJ
Morning Take-Out – NYT
AM Dear Dairy: TGIF – Macro and Cheese
Key Crop Report Ahead of Weekend – Marc to Market

Pre-market Commentary – Marketwatch
Pre-Market Trading – CNNMoney
Pre-Market – NASDAQ
US Equity Preview – Bloomberg
Earnings & Events – The Street
MarketCurrents – Seeking Alpha

TV: Bloomberg, BBC
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

Portuguese head breaks ranks, urges ECB bond-buyingeuobserver
Portugal's President has broken his government's pro-German line by urging the ECB to start buying troubled eurozone bonds.

Bargain hunting for quality in Europealphaville / FT
The way the Citi analysts look at it, even though we’re in for a rough time in Europe in terms of growth, an unresolved sovereign crisis, deleveraging, and political risk with assorted elections on the way in the autumn, the region’s “corporate sector appears attractive measured by current returns (RoE) and balance sheets.”

On Greece and spilt milkalphaville / FT
Earlier in the week we had Jean-Claude Juncker from Luxembourg saying that a Greek exit was manageable, if not desirable. Is this chatter orchestrated? Who knows?

Problem in Europe is Arithmetic, Not Confidence; Why the Eurozone Cannot Possibly Survive IntactMish’s

Global Week aheadNordea (pdf)
Markets are waiting for cues to take new direction – cues about possible decisive ECB intervention and/or more evidence that the big economies are starting to recover modestly. For decisive ECB action we need 1) the details of the new ECB intervention program 2) Spain asking for EFSF intervention/pre-cautionary credit line with potentially massive ECB support attached 3) Germany signing somewhere in the bottom. I believe this is likely within the next two months. So listen (most) carefully to speeches from Draghi, Rajoy, Weidmann, and the German government.

Weekly Credit UpdateDanske Bank (pdf)
A dull week in credit markets * Disintermediation will continue * Higher utilisation of balance-sheet encumbrance not a credit negative.

China economy: staring down the bottomless pitASA
The third quarter started on a surprisingly weak note for
China despite all the talks (and hope) on stimulus and monetary policy easing. The macro data pretty much confirm our view that economic growth did not reach a bottom in the second quarter as the consensus used to believe. If anything, the economy seems to be worsening somewhat again.

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