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Tuesday, August 28

28th Aug - US Close: Damn, BB

Nothing much going on, so I am just collecting interesting articles as usual... the stupid Bloomberg stopped showing CDS prices on sovereigns on the web for free - so be careful if you look at my Charts-page. As we are waiting for the dreaded September days and before that, the Jackson Hole, I thought this video of Europe's Final Countdown should be ok for comic relief.

To make matters worse, my less handsome partner has as of yesterday started to follow the Big Brother's local edition on television. Now she is constantly bugging me to open up the laptop, turn off the screen saver and so on. Oh, the humanity! Damn you, BB!

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups & Commentary
News – Between The Hedges
Markets – Between The Hedges
The Closer – alphaville / FT
Draghi cancels trip to Jackson HoleKiron Sarkar / The Big Picture
Tyler’s European Summary – ZH
  Europe Closes Red As London's Credit Reality Returns
Tyler’s US Summary – ZH
  Equities Unch As VIX 'Premium-To-Realized' Nears Three-Month High

TV: Bloomberg, BBC
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

The Euro Crisis Is Back From Vacation NYT
Here is a guide to the new season’s most intriguing (and terrifying) story lines.

Anti-EU, Anti-Brussels Sentiment Rises in Netherlands; Don't Expect Much From a "Merkollande" SummitMish’s

German economy converging with the Eurozone's Sober Look
At this stage it's only a matter of time before Germany's GDP (which is a lagging indicator) turns negative.

How Fast Is the Boat to China?EconoMonitor
When it comes to entering the Chinese market, Germany is significantly ahead of most other EU countries.

Troika ties hands to mast, waits for Greecealphaville / FT
It’s easy to forget for instance that the current Greek bailout talks technically started way back in March. The official Troika review of the programme isn’t expected to finish until October.

Making Europe WorkProject Syndicate
If Europe wants to revive sustainable growth and high employment, it must replicate what has worked in those countries that have performed successfully. Doing so will cost money, and governments must be prepared to persuade their electorates that it would be money well spent.

Why an ECB interest rate target (or band) is not the answerDaiwa
…with or without an interest rate target, the success and the sustainability of any future ECB interventions will ultimately depend on the peripheral governments’ ability to meet the conditionality required. The long-term future of the euro, meanwhile, will depend on the willingness of all euro area governments to embrace much closer fiscal and economic integration.

A German Sovereign Wealth Fund to save the
by Daniel Gros, Thomas Mayer (I posted this earlier when it was behind FT’s paywall)

Impression from Madrid (presentation) – Nordea Bank (pdf)
Here is a presentation containing charts and comments supporting our general view on Spain. I have added a slide on the order of events leading to a Spanish request for rescue fund support topped with ECB intervention, which I believe will happen within a month or two.

Spain: Shall Bitterly Begin His Fearful DateMark Grant / ZH
If the government of Spain is allowing this “dynamic provisioning” for their banks; what makes you think that they are not using the exact same scheme for their national data? If Spain is allowing the numbers for their banks to be cooked then I would assert that they are following the same plan with the country’s numbers so that nothing about the Spanish banks or the Spanish
GDP, debt to GDP and the size of their economy is even remotely believable.

Spain in wait-and-see mode as recession worsenseuobserver
An internal review within the ECB is due by 6 September on the practicalities of how this linkage can be made between a central bank - supposedly strictly independent from politics and governments - and a governments' bailout fund using taxpayers' money.

Jackson Hole preview: No QE3 now but low fed funds rate into 2015Saxo Bank
Steen Jakobsen: Ben Bernanke is very unlikely to announce a third round of quantitative easing at Jackson Hole. He will likely extend talk of lower federal funds rates into 2015. Expecting more in a US election year and ahead of European clarity is asking too much.

Credit Suisse Betting On A Big Jackson Hole DisappointmentZH

Is The 'Counter' Trade On?ZH
Asset-class movements and sector-rotations suggest something is afoot. Since the peak in the S&P 500 last week, we have seen a clear rotation from cyclicals to non-cyclicals, a major rotation from stocks into bonds, and a significant regime change in the relationship between Gold, the USD, and Treasury prices.

A corny FX chart alphaville / FT
What nations are impacted by food prices and how their currencies correlate with the food prices.

China's 'Non-Performing Loan' NightmareZH
Societe Generale: the central government will have to take the burden onto its own balance sheet as the NPL cycle reaches its final days of reckoning. The fiscal cost will only be higher the longer the process drags on, and a bigger concern is that more resources may be locked in these non-performing assets.

Suomalaiset EU-asiantuntijat ja kompetenssimedian vahtikoira

Tämäkö ei ole salaliitto - Suomi maksaa muiden puolesta eurojäsenyysrahaa Arhi Kuittinen / US Puheenvuoro

Sadan miljardin pankkituki Espanjaan... kerran kuussa? Henri Myllyniemi / US Puheenvuoro

Wahlroos taas vauhdissa: kriisi ratkaistavissa kahdessa viikossaAL

Espanjassa talletuspakokauhua heinäkuussaeuroetana

Rakennusluvat lisääntyivät kesäkuussaeuroetana

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