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Monday, August 13

13th Aug - EU Open: Nein-Time?

Good morning, the negative comments from Germany have not exactly crashed the markets yet, but a slight negative tone in both the EUR and S&P is evident.

It is a strange world we inhabit. One where economies remain extremely depressed yet almost no companies go bankrupt, while low interest rates encourage holders of capital to speculate. One where global turmoil mounts while the world passively watches. One where nearly every member of Congress will insist that we need to rein in deficit spending, while collectively Congress accomplishes virtually nothing. It would be absurdly funny if it weren’t so incredibly tragic. – Seth Klarman, Founder of Baupost Group 

What you missed during the weekend:
Weekender: HFT: Knightian Uncertainty  (high-frequency trading)
Weekender: Weekly Support  (week behind & ahead)
Weekender: Best of The Week  (if you missed)

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter or Facebook 
News roundup – Between The Hedges
The 6am Cut London – alphaville / FT
Emerging Markets Headlines – beyondbrics / FT

TV: Bloomberg, BBC
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

Asia Today: Japan reports marginal Q2 growth; No China rate cutSaxo Bank
Weak risk appetite on Friday in the aftermath of China’s softer trade data led to the usual rumours/chatter of a weekend China rate cut late in the session. They came to nothing, so Asia kicked off the session with another weakish start

Market Preview: Italian & French auctions on tapSaxo Bank
European markets are expected to open marginally higher Monday amid speculation that global central banks might take additional measures to boost growth. Investors await the outcome of Italian and French bond auctions due later in the day.

Danske Daily Danske Bank (pdf)
With no important data releases in the global calendar today, markets wil ldigest the disappointing growth data out of Japan this morning and await more important releases later this week. Focus will continue to centre on the development in the sovereign bond markets in Italy and Spain. Investors are awaiting more info on when/whether Spain will request EFSF assistance and details on how the ECB could intervene. 

Morning Briefing: Down underBNY Mellon
The AUD is on the rise for reasons old and just possibly, new

Aamukatsaus Nordea (pdf)
Japanin talouskasvu hidastuu * Euroalueelta tulossa taantumaan osoittavia lukuja * Saksan ja USA:n korot laskussa heikon talousdatan myötä

Aamukatsaus Tapiola (pdf)
Japanin pehmeät BKT-luvut heikko alku viikolle, Aasian markkina pienessä laskussa. Tuloskausi päätökseen tällä viikolla, makrodatan osalta uutisvirta käyntiin huomenna. Osakefutuurit nyt aamulla lievästi negatiivisella puolella ,indikoiden laskuavausta. 2Q12-tuloskausi lähenee loppuaan – 87% OMX HEX yrityksistä raportoinut: Liikevaihdot ovat ylittäneet odotukset, mutta tulokset ovat olleet odotuksia heikompia.

Markkinakalenteri Nordnet
Markkinakalenteri Taloussanomat

Germany Has "Reached Its Limit" On Greek AidZH
Merkel Is BaaaaaaackZH
Deputy chancellor Fuchs: Germany has "reached the limit of its capacity" over additional EFSF payments to Greece, the ESM should not receive a banking license, the ECB should not act as money printing press in disguise. Also, BNP Paribas: Greece, Trying To Catch Up.

The Owl Of Minerva Edward Hugh / Fistful of Euros
Well, if you let things go to hell for the best part of five years, naturally the patient is in a poor state and in need of radical surgery. I won’t say “I hope they know what they are doing,” since I am pretty sure they don’t. Perhaps I would rather say I hope Mariano Rajoy knows what he is letting himself in for when he asks for help from the ECB.

Markets: A Tale of Two Masters Macro and Cheese
In other words, the current conditions are a recipe for market instability.  If and when economic calamity weighs down on the market, the market will drop, but find its legs due to government goodies and bargain-hunters, and pop back up.  Just which side of the buttered bread will end up when it all hits the fan is a matter of taste. 

Who Wants The Highest Crude Oil Price? Presenting The OPEC Cost CurveZH
Breakeven price has soared from just $77 two years ago to a whopping $99/barrel. Iran requires $127 to balance its budget. Full APIC pdf

Austerity, Debt-Deleveraging, And Why 'Muddle-Through' FailsZH
SocGen: Critically then, without policy confidence 'muddle-through' will keep leaking back to unsustainable crises; and with the burden of the required structural reforms (given even aggressive growth expectations) policy-makers are highly unlikely to gain and keep the public's confidence in order to jump the chasm from Austerity Trap to expansionary fiscal contraction.

Global Home Prices July 2012 Deutsche Bank / scribd

Kovaa puhetta Euroopasta MT
Sailaksen poikkeuksellisen kovan puheenvuoron jälkeen on selvä, että Suomessa pitää selvittää pohjia myöden, mitä vaihtoehtoja nykyiselle menolle on.

Saksalainen tilasto näyttää: Asuntokupla Suomessa on tosiUS

Italian pankit keksivät uuden koiruuden taseidensa kaunistamiseksiTE
Italian keskuspankki pääomittamaan liikepankkeja?

Olli Rehn haaveilee taas eurobondeistaTE

”Kreikan pysyminen eurossa on Suomen etu”MT
OP-Pohjolan pääjohtaja Reijo Karhinen: Kreikan jäsenyys pitää euron heikkona, mikä hyödyttää Suomen vientiteollisuutta.

Saksa käyttää veto-oikeuttaan, ellei Kreikka noudata säästöohjelmaaYLE