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Wednesday, August 1

1st Aug - US Open

Waiting for the FED. Then it’s Europe’s turn. For full coverage, see my continuously updated specials ECB WATCH and FED WATCH.

On this day in 1981, MTV made its cable-television debut. The first music video aired on MTV was “Video Killed the Radio Star“ by the Buggles.MarketBeat / WSJ

Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Wed - Best of July

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News & Recap – RanSquawk / ZH
Frontrunning – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – FT
Emerging N.Y. headlines – FT
Today’s front pages – presseurop
Daily press summary – Open Europe

Morning MarketBeat: Pressure Piles on Fed – WSJ
Broker Note Briefing – WSJ
Morning Take-Out – NYT
AM Dear Dairy: CBs on Deck – Macro and Cheese
The Broken TransmissionMarc to Market
The Fed will Disappoint but it Won’t Matter – TF MarketAdvisors

Pre-market Commentary – Marketwatch
Pre-Market Trading – CNNMoney
Pre-Market – NASDAQ
US Equity Preview – Bloomberg
Earnings & Events – The Street
MarketCurrents – Seeking Alpha

TV: Bloomberg, BBC
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

Euro area manufacturing PMIs for July point to deepening recessionASA  
It’s about time to buy burnt-out European stocksMarketWatch
A currency that may implode at any moment. A collapsing banking system. A deepening recession, with no flexibility to boost growth through either monetary or fiscal policy. Making a bear case for euro-zone equities right now is easy.

EUROPE: ECB (see also my Special)
Draghi is set to disappointMacroBusiness
Given the constraints it is quite possible that Draghi  is about to under deliver on the expectations he has created.

ECB's watchdog could get power to order bank closuresReuters

Draghi Reshapes ECB Crisis Pragmatism as Trichet’s Dogma FadesBB

The ECB May Get Much BolderEuro Crisis / BB

ECB Preview: Show us the "full Monti"Danske Bank (pdf)
ECB might not be able to deliver anything specific already on Thursday though, as it needs more time to coordinate with EFSF, Italy and Spain. Draghi’s comments have apparently been a surprise to many of his central bank colleagues, which suggests he did not secure backing for new initiatives ahead of his speech. We therefore see a risk that markets will be disappointed on Thursday.

USA (see also my Special)
FOMC PreviewPragCap
Likely market reaction – a big dump followed by a comeback when investors realize the world isn’t going to end just because the baby didn’t get its pacifier.  And if I am wrong and the bazooka gets triggered tomorrow, well, I’ll see you on the other side of a 2% rally. 

Fed Wraps Up Meeting as Markets Await ActionTIME

Fed to signal more easing but stop short of big stepsReuters
The Federal Reserve is likely to show on Wednesday that it is ready to act against a weakening economy but stop short of aggressive measures for now.

Those Asian PMIs at a glance – beoyndbrics / FT
China’s Q2 bottoming-out proves elusive – alphaville / FT
The sound of falling Chinese USD reserves… – alphaville / FT
China’s balance of payments (ex. reserve account) turned negative in Q2 – ASA
China’s two-way liquidity risk: Capital outflows – alphaville / FT
China’s two-way liquidity risk: shadow banking – alphaville / FT
Flash Comment: ChinaDanske Bank (pdf)
  PMIs show stabilisation but weaker exports could spoil the recovery

July's Winners And LosersZH
Deutsche’s charts of asset performance

Wall Street strategists have become most bearish on equities since the beginning of timeASA
Strategists Most Bearish on Equities since 1985The Big Picture