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Friday, August 24

24th Aug - Weekender: Best of The Week

Picks from the ending week’s posts.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Presentation: What to watch - Euro area and US key events in H2 2012 Danske Bank (pdf)

Showdowns that will define Europe's future The Telegraph
EU leaders may soon have to choose between keeping the euro and maintaining democracy, says Mats Persson.

Going for (long-run) Greek growthalphaville / FT
The recent price move means you’re now paying 50 cents for the chance of getting one euro of payout in 2015, up from 32 cents. So something is changing. Fascinating to consider how this might develop, because the warrants are like a convex bet for the eurozone crisis, offering a potential return many times higher than the short-term downside which you are being asked to hold. The upside is not short-term.

Confidence and EnthusiasmHussman Funds
The present confidence and enthusiasm of investors about the ability of monetary policy to avoid all negative outcomes mirrors the confidence and enthusiasm that investors had in 2000 about the permanence of technology-driven productivity, and in 2007 about the durability of housing gains and leverage-driven prosperity. Market history is littered with unfounded faith in new economic eras, and hopes that “this time is different.”

European Crisis MonitorThe Big Picture
Bloomberg’s daily brief on Europe

In praise of debt mutualisation alphaville / FT
HSBC has a remarkably sunny note out on the prospect of unlimited bond market intervention by the ECB, driving short term sovereign yields significantly lower. (full note link in the article)

Some PMIs went up, but the eurozone is still headed for recession alphaville / FT

Spanish and Italian bond issuance, once the holiday is overalphaville / FT

An ECB “CGBPP”alphaville / FT
This one’s from Citi’s Global Economic Outlook for August, which dubs the expected ECB operation the “Conditional Government Bond Purchase Programme” (snappy!). Citi forecasts that  the ‘CGBPP’ will concentrate on buying T-bills. These are usually protected from losses during a sovereign debt restructuring

Studies in pre-commitmentphobia: The case of the ECBalphaville / FT
What this meatless announcement also did was give every analyst (and ahem… blogger) something to write/speculate about in an otherwise quiet month.

Greek Q&A: Will they get the next tranche?
1: Key events –BNY Mellon
2: What’s Germany’s position? –BNY Mellon
3: What is the position of others in the Euro-area? –BNY Mellon

GS On What's Really Happening In Markets And The EconomyBI
90-slide presentation from Goldman Sachs

FX Forecast Update Aug (34 slides)Danske Bank (pdf)

Emerging Markets Briefer Aug (19 pages)Danske Bank (pdf)

Global Scenarios: Stuck in the mud Danske Bank (pdf)
Once again the recovery has been derailed and the outlook remains subdued * Many roadblocks to be passed before euro crisis tapers off * Tight financial and fiscal conditions keep euro area in recession * High uncertainty to keep US growth below trend despite better fundamentals * China has room to manoeuvre, policy stimulus to lift growth by year-end * Policymakers digging deeper in toolboxes – central banks to ease further

US 2012 election – an overviewDanske Bank (pdf)

Copper Leads Global GrowthThe Short Side of The Long
Very nice and long piece of the markets from the point of copper.

A word about banks and the laundering of drug money Golem XIV
Drug money, criminal at the start, is criminal and dirty no matter how many times it is laundered. The bankers know this better than anyone. Yet they do it every day, every week, every year and every decade in every major financial centre and everyone knows it.

"Pre-crisis, there were three basic types of global macro players. There was Old School Macro. Think..."alphaville / FT

Interactive overview of global house prices and rentsThe Economist

Highlights of R in Finance 2012Portfolio Probe

HFT charts of the day, trading-cost editionFelix Salmon / Reuters

Liquidity and Asset
An excellent review book on liquidity and asset prices by three experts Yakov Amihud, Haim Mendelson, and Lasse Heje Pedersen. A good bed reading one. (full pdf)

Weekend Reading: Bulls, Bears, and High-Frequency Foul-UpsCFA Institute
Here are some compelling articles you may have missed

How Change HappensJohn Mauldin / The Big Picture
On complexity, why disasters happen and where do the fat tails come from.

Robots to Rule the World? Taking All Jobs? Replace Women?Mish’s

Suomen 90-luvun kriisin syyt ja seurakset (2001) – VATT (pdf)
Jaakko Kianderin 170-sivuinen järkäle. Koska harva tuntee edellistä rytinää. Globaali velkavetoinen kiinteistökupla puhkeaa, vientimarkkinat sakkaavat, kotitaloudet velkaisia, rahapolitiikasta on luovuttu. Koska te opitte – saatanan tunarit!

Näin Suomen kriisivakuudet haihtuvat jo ilmaanJan Hurri / TalSa

Otit vain pieniä askeleita ja olet liittovaltiossaTalSa

EU-liittovaltio ja Suomi - sata ja kymppiOlli Pusa / US Puheenvuoro

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