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Monday, August 13

13th Aug - US Close

An American liberal is good at getting sex but bad at earning money. An American libertarian is is good at earning money but bad at getting sex. A conservative is not really good at anything and therefore wants a society where everyone must stay with their first contact of the opposite sex – J.R.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Weekender: HFT: Knightian Uncertainty  (high-frequency trading)
Weekender: Weekly Support  (week behind & ahead)
Weekender: Best of The Week  (if you missed)

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Markets – Between The Hedges
The Closer alphaville / FT
Market Commentary – A View From My Screens
Political/policy risks in the EZ are risingKiron Sarkar / The Big Picture
Tyler’s US Summary – ZH
  Volume Crashes As S&P 500 Breaks Winning Streak Even And VIX Plunges To Five Year Lows

TV: Bloomberg, BBC
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

Currency's Days Seen Numbered: Investors Prepare for Euro CollapseSpiegel
Banks, companies and investors are preparing themselves for a collapse of the euro. Cross-border bank lending is falling, asset managers are shunning Europe and money is flowing into German real estate and bonds. The euro remains stable against the dollar because America has debt problems too. But unlike the euro, the dollar's structure isn't in doubt.

We haven't forgotten how to make depressionsFree exchange / The Economist
If the euro zone can't manage more cooperation than the gold bloc did—in particular, by permitting a monetary boom in the surplus economies of the core and avoiding the temptation to extract the greatest concessions possible from those peripheral economies on their heels—then it would be surprising if the end of the one didn't strongly resemble the end of the other.

Why Greece is Still the Word Marc to Market
The most likely scenario, we think, is that the Greek government will approve the new austerity measures by late September, giving the Troika little choice but to approve the next tranche of aid in October.

Bundesverfassungsgericht risk strikes againalphaville / FT0
UBS recently organised a call with Professor Franz Mayer of the University of Bielefeld, to explain what the German constitutional court might be thinking on whether the European Stabilisation Mechanism is in keeping with German law. (link to the full UBS doc)

New Lawsuit Filed Against ESM Threatens Further Bailout Fund DelayZH

ECB conditionality exceeds their mandatemainly macro
to embark on unconditional and selective QE in the current situation is within the price stability mandate of the ECB. To impose conditionality in the way it is doing is not within its mandate. Unfortunately, as Carl Whelan points out, this is not the first time the ECB has exceeded its mandate. As he also says, if the Fed or Bank of England made QE conditional on their governments undertaking certain ‘structural reforms’ or fiscal actions, there would be outrage. So why do so many people write as if it acceptable for the ECB to do this?

LCH Hikes Spain, Italy MarginsZH

Collapse in the Eurozone ABS activity Sober Look

Reports of the Death of Equities Have Been Greatly ExaggeratedGMO (pdf)

Peeking Beneath The Surface Of The 'Most Hated' Stock RallyZH
…abnormal micro structure, including the fact that mega-caps have outperformed in an up tape, high beta has underperformed, and in the last month energy was the best-performing sector while materials was the worst, despite the 0.83 correlation between the two over the past 40 years.

This is what bull markets are all aboutRichard Bernstein Advisors (pdf)
This pervasive hesitancy to invest in US equities despite the asset class’s significant performance further cements our bullishness regarding the asset class.  Bull markets typically end with over-enthusiasm, and not the fear that is so prevalent today.

VIX at 5 year lows ZH
All is well with the world Sober Look

Which Sectors Do Analysts Love and LoatheBespoke

What Does High Yield Credit Know That Stocks Don't?ZH

Market Volume: Summer Doldrums, or Something Else?dshort

Q2 earnings surprises masked weaker revenuesSober Look

A(nother, yes) Paul Ryan roundupalphaville / FT

How long can Japanese bond prices defy gravity?Econbrowser