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Monday, August 20

20th Aug - US Open: Ze Germans again...

Today's latest ECB rumor shot down by ze Germans. This is probably a very good time to start shorting the Spanish bonds across the curve - not much room for improvement left anymore. In my previous post I outlined the technical ranges for some markets: in SPX a probable good buying level is around 1408.

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

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Roundups & Commentary
US Opening News And Market Re-Cap – Ransquawk / ZH
Frontrunning – ZH
The Lunch Wrap – alphaville / FT
Emerging N.Y. headlines – beyondbrics / FT
Today’s front pages – presseurop
Daily press summary – Open Europe

Morning MarketBeat: Are Dividend Stocks Losing Their Luster? – WSJ
Broker Note Briefing – WSJ
Morning Take-Out – NYT
Overnight Summary – ZH
AM Dear Dairy – Macro and Cheese
The Churn Burn Continues  Marc to Market

US session ahead
Pre-market Commentary – Marketwatch
Pre-Market Trading – CNNMoney
Pre-Market – NASDAQ
US Equity Preview – Bloomberg
Earnings & Events – The Street
MarketCurrents – Seeking Alpha

TV: Bloomberg, BBC
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

Presentation: What to watch - Euro area and US key events in H2 2012 Danske Bank (pdf)

Showdowns that will define Europe's future The Telegraph
EU leaders may soon have to choose between keeping the euro and maintaining democracy, says Mats Persson.

Latest ECB rumor
Analysts Respond To "Unsourced" Reports Of Open-Ended ECB Monetization – ZH
Bundesbank Reiterates Objection As German FinMin Refutes Spiegel Report – ZH
ECB Crushes Spiegel's "Absolutely Misleading" Monetization Report – ZH
Is the ECB Really Ready to Put on the Spread Cap? – MarketBeat / WSJ
Woe is Italy’s labour market alphaville / FT
SocGen: there is a good chance that the EU will seize the opportunity to impose deep and meaningful reforms on Italy – something that at the moment all the political parties inside Italy appear keen to avoid.

The use of the Eurosystem's monetary policy instruments and operational framework since 2009 – ECB (pdf)

China’s thermal electric power output fell 4.5% yoy in July – ASA
China’s “special mention” loans outstanding rose to RMB1.46 trillion – ASA
Shanghai composite hits a new post-financial crisis low – ASA

China’s economy growing in the wrong places alphaville / FT
There’s probably some conflicting motives among policymakers because while we’ve seen that the central government stimulus talk indicates a doubling down on the imbalanced growth strategy — growing through capital investment rather than consumption — there’s also a big political imperative to try to make property prices more affordable.

Getting bullish, but first wait for a pullbackHumble Student

Revisiting Stocks For The Long RunThe Big Picture
We have called this generation’s outperformance of bonds over stocks the biggest investment theme everyone has gotten wrong. Over the years, when we note this, many say this is the most bullish argument they have ever heard for stocks, as this trend has to reverse. However, as the tables above highlight, this argument has been made for years and been wrong for years.

Equity Review: Will the end of summer stir the market?Saxo Bank
The performance discrepancy between US and European stocks seems to be rapidly closing with the Stoxx 50 gaining more than 10 percent in the past month versus 4 percent for the S&P500. And while the S&P has been a strong performer, Europe is finally catching up but the big question is: will it last?

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