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Thursday, August 16

16th Aug - US Close: Gimme all you've got!

Gimme all you've got, yells Al. The stock markets rallied, again on nothing but a bullish interpretation. The markets are bullish until they are not. There are no signs of an impending doom, no reason to be short - but not that many to be long, either. Next weekend's posts are going to be huge. I try to post them already on Saturday, so at least someone would have time to go through them before another week of sameness.


Previously on MoreLiver’s:
Thu: US Open
Thu: EU Open
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Roundups & Commentary                     
Markets – Between The Hedges
The Closer – alphaville / FT

European commentary – Marc to Market
Market Commentary – A View From My Screens
Overview – Kiron Sarkar / The Big Picture
The T Report – TF Market Advisors
Tyler’s European Summary – ZH
  Spain And Italy Stocks Surging, Bonds Not So Much (Again)
Tyler’s US Summary – ZH

TV: Bloomberg, BBC
Debt crisis: live – The Telegraph
The Euro Crisis Blog – WSJ
Tracking Europe’s Debt Crisis – NYT
FX Options Analytics – Saxo Bank
European 10yr Yields and Spreads – MTS indices

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A Waiting GameGolem XIV
I think the big banks are hoarding and waiting. Each hopes not to fall first. Those who do fall will be picked clean by those still standing. This is what the bail out money is being used for…

Spreads and that damn seniorityalphaville / FT
Goldman Sachs…tries to strip out the “excess” spread of Italian and Spanish debt to Germany, which might come from such things as convertibility risk.

Resistance in Berlin: The Return of the Iron ChancellorSpiegel
Antonis Samaras' trip to Germany next week will be a complicated one. The Greek prime minister is expected to ask Angela Merkel for his country to be given two more years to adhere to the austerity conditions attached to the country's EU-IMF bailout program. With political resistance growing in Berlin, the chancellor has little leeway for compromise.

Charts: Europe Since LTRO2 - A Little ContextZH
Source: Wirtschaftsblatt

Breakdown of 1 trillion euros in European bank NPLs by countryCredit Writedowns

Distributing Spain’s bank bailout fundsalphaville / FT
It is difficult to understand what’s going on behind the scenes, especially between the Spanish government and the European partners. The common understanding is that the first EUR 30bn tranche should be released soon; that said, some European partners may want to see more progress and clarity on the reforms to the Spanish banking sector, like the promised resolution mechanism and bad bank.

When You Only Have a HammerTim Duy’s Fed Watch
Canada is not a model for Europe.  If it is a model, it tells us that currency depreciation relative to your major trading partners is an essential part of any austerity program.  Not exactly a model that Europe is willing to follow.

German economy: Europe’s tired engineThe Economist
As the euro zone goes into another recession, Germany is slowing down

Spanish savers: Unhappy holidaysThe Economist
A proposed hit to savers increases the government’s unpopularity

Uncertain uncertainty effects and the fiscal cliffalphaville / FT
worries about the fiscal cliff probably do have some impact, especially on the most vulnerable sectors, but this impact is difficult to quantify (links to a fresh report by Citi)

A muted Vixalphaville / FT
How can it be that the Vix index is trading at five-year lows when expectations are anything but bullish?

Chart: China’s iron ore price hits new lowASA

China FDI was down 8.7% yoy in JulyASA

Non-performing loans at China’s banks have started risingASA

EMEA Weekly, Week 34Danske Bank (pdf)

Veronmaksukyky ja –halu Hannu Visti