MoreLiver's Daily: 2014

Wednesday, December 31

31st Dec - More QE-talk from ECB

30th Dec - Risk-off: JPY stronger, stocks down

29th Dec - Greece gets an early election

28th Dec - Another short week upon us

Saturday, December 20

20th Dec - W/E: Linkfest

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new material is published.

19th Dec - Russia & energy still dominate

Thursday, December 18

18th Dec - Putin's speech more of the same

16th Dec - Russia's crazy day, Dec PMIs

15th Dec - Sell-off about to end? Fed ahead

13th Dec - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new material is published.

12th Dec - Eyes turning to FOMC

11th Dec - Mediocre TLTRO pushes ECB to QE?

Here is the latest cross-post by Macronomics.

10th Dec - Divergences of all kind

9th Dec - Greece & China in headlines

8th Dec - Eurocrisis suggested

6th Dec - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. This post will be updated as new material is published.

4th Dec - ECB waits...and waits

2nd Dec - Europe seen to fall in deflation

29th Nov - W/E: Linkfest

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

28th Nov - Italy's unemployment to new record

27th Nov - Draghi calls for more Europe

26th Nov - EU's investment "plan", ECB talk

25th Nov - EZ bond yields plummet

Enjoy!

- MoreLiver

24th Nov - Week of unthankfulness begins

23rd Nov - W/E: Linkfest

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

21st Nov - China cuts rates, Draghi goes easy

17th Nov - Japan's Q3 GDP terrible

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

Thursday, November 13

13th Nov - GDP, G20 meeting ahead

10th Nov - Beginning of a slow week

9th Nov - W/E: Off-topic & Finnish

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

7th Nov - Ok US payrolls, ECB pondered

6th Nov - ECB calms rumours and waits

5th Nov - ECB ahead, my bet

I challenged the Nordea's head strategist:

@JanVonGerich three months, Feb-5 2015, yield diff now 1.53, I pay if 1.8 touched, you pay if 1.26 touched. Ok? pic.twitter.com/Ucv1BlHX5r

4th Nov - EU-Commission lowers forecasts

3rd Nov - Good US data, BOJ behind, ECB ahead

2nd Nov - Random Charts

The world, economics, markets, off-topic and Finnish-language stuff for your weekend.

1st Nov - Credit Guest: Pascal's Wager

Here is the latest cross-post from Macronomics:

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

30th Oct - More on Fed, Greece again a problem

29th Oct - Fed ends QE3

After all, the job of the market is to thieve and steal as much money as possible, from as many participants as possible, in as many occasions as possible.

- Short Side of Long

28th Oct - USD weaker ahead of Fed

26th Oct - ECB's Comprehensive Assessment

25th Oct - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

24th Oct - Eve of Stress Tests

23rd Oct - European budgets, ECB doubted

22nd Oct - EUR slides on ECB bond rumours

21st Oct - ECB's test balloon, China's GDP

Here is the latest cross-post from Macronomics:

19th Oct - W/E: Linkfest

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

16th Oct - Reversal day as Fed talks QE?

15th Oct - Nasty risk-off moves

Thought of the day: I've noticed it is not wise to underestimate the resiliency of European stupidness. In Finland, being critical toward the euro currency is a luxury that only few can afford, as it is a career-killer. Only few economics professors dare to say anything negative about it. I really wonder how Europe turned this way. Perhaps it was a dream, that no-one wants to give up, even if it has to be turned into a nightmare.

15th Oct - Credit Guest: Actus Tragicus

Here is the latest cross-post from Macronomics.

15th Oct - Chart: Greece is back

Non-performing loans as percentage of total loans

14th Oct - ECB at court, Fed talks down the USD

13th Oct -Falling US inflation outlook

12th Oct - W/E: Linkfest

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

9th Oct - Nervous markets, European reforms

8th Oct - IMF continues warnings, FOMC minutes

7th Oct - IMF lowers outlook

Here is the latest cross-post courtesy of Macronomics:

6th Oct - Bears take control after lousy data

#Dombrovskis said (kudos to Open Europe)

The next Commission will be committed to bringing € agreements into EU framework, means treaty change

If EU states demanded a mechanism for country to leave € COM would provide tech support. Refuses to say personal view

Pointed out earlier flaws in the EMU structure, yet when questioned on it he rejected euro as cause of crisis

Euro has been a huge success despite crisis, even countries outside the euro had crises so I think euro is not the problem

Points out that his country went through a deep crisis without the euro - (does not mention his currency was pegged to euro)

4th Oct - W/E: Linkfest

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

Here are the best picks from my ending week’s posts. Previous “best of” here.

3rd Oct - Good payrolls lift USD, stocks

2nd Oct - ECB presented no surprises

A collection of recent ECB-preview and related articles. Consensus does not expect "QE", but sees more aggressive ABS-implementation than several euro members would like to have.

30th Sep - USD goes the distance

27th Sep - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

Finland's official worries about unsustainable fiscal spending sound weird when looking at the bond yields. There is another agenda: pushing through internal devaluation, adhering to the EU's growth- and stability pact etc.

Plenty of downside left in the German stock index - at least to the lower end of the trading range.

US positive surprise index has turned down from high levels (expect negative surprises in the near future), while Euro zone negative surprises are largely behind us now.

During the past two expansions, only the better-off minority has seen an increase in their income - and the trend remains clear.

European purchasing manager indices did not show any growth ahead

The euro's weakness after the ECB's threats and plans of further monetary policy easing have largely been against the USD. Against AUD, JPY etc, the net change is zero.

Greece's stock index looks technically bad, but from a bit lower levels could provide a nice quick swing trade higher.

27th Sep - W/E: Best of the Week

Here are the best picks from my ending week’s posts. Bottom line & summary: Ukrainian crisis not going anywhere, growth outlook in Europe remains terrible, ECB's QE doubted.

26th Sep - ECB continues verbal intervention

25th Sep - Sell-off in Europe

24th Sep - Bad Ifo, PBOC-hustle

23rd Sep - PMIs again dark

22nd Sep - Draghi's speech

21st Sep - W/E: Linkfest

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

19th Sep - Scotland voted "no", markets relieved

18th Sep - ECB's TLTRO gets little interest

17th Sep - Fed's non-surprise

16th Sep - China's QE, usual europessimism

15th Sep - Sweden over and megaweek ahead

14th Sep - W/E: Linkfest

14th Sep - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

11th Sep - Quiet waiting

9th Sep - Credit Guest: Sympathy for the Devil

Here is the latest cross-post from Macronomics:

8th Sep - Scotland poll, Ukraine, ECB

7th Sep - W/E: Off-Topic & Finnish

6th Sep - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

The more interesting articles from the ending week's posts. Last week’s edition here.

5th Sep - More ECB, weak payrolls, Ukraine

4th Sep - ECB's dovish surprise, Ukrainian solution?

3rd Sep - Hope on Ukraine, waning ECB

2nd Sep - Eyes on Ukraine and ECB

Here is the latest from Macronomics, kindly cross-posted to MoreLiver's.

1st Sep - US Labour day, big events this week

31st Aug - W/E: Off-Topic & Finnish

31st Aug - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

The more interesting articles from the ending week's posts. Last week’s edition here.

European data weakened, even more than was expected, while US data improved - also even more than was expected. After ECB's Draghi gave THE speech at Jackson Hole a week ago, eyes are now firmly on the ECB's next steps. The central bank will probably sit and wait to see how the TLTRO is picked up in early September and do more preparations to get the ABS-program up and running.

Germany sees opposed to more unconventional monetary tricks - so that's it, then. Until things get so bad that even the Germans drop their pretense.

Voices against austerity in Italy and France, so France's government remixed and Merkel's new toyboy is Spanish. The lesson is that unless you drive the agenda of Germany, you will not get top jobs in the EU and you are labeled as liberal, anti-European and whatever.

Equity markets at all-time-high in US, and even Germany bounced nicely, but toward the end of the week Ukraine soured the moods.

29th Aug - Doubts about ECB rising

Quote of the day: Despite decent M1 growth, broader monetary aggregates in the EU have been very weak. As I’ve mentioned before, this is likely a result of the impaired banking system – something that the AQR (along with forced recapitalization programs) will hopefully fix. I think this is a problem that the ECB recognizes, and a reason why the TLRTO’s specifically target bank lending, as well as coinciding with the AQR. IMO, this is also a reason the ECB is reluctant to pursue QE outright. There are many views on how QE affects the economy, but one of the clearest effects is the growth in base money… that really isn’t the problem at this juncture. – Global Macro Trading

28th Aug - Ukrainian crisis gets serious

27th Aug - Hollande kisses Merkel, yields hit new lows

Previously on MoreLiver’s:

Tuesday: A sit-down in Ukraine, French politics

Monday: Post-J-Hole, SPX breaks 2000, EUR dips

W/E: Off-Topic & Finnish

W/E: Markets & Economics

W/E: The World

W/E: Weekly Support (updated)

Special: Jackson Hole

W/E: Best of the Week

Follow ‘MoreLiver’ on Twitter

EUROPE

Optimism? In the Eurozone? Forget it – TradingFloor

It may be the long European summer but in reality this is the perfect time for the Eurozone to send a few ferrets down the many holes in the system and see what startled rabbits pop up. They're likely to be very sickly.

Sharp decline in intra-EU trade over the past 4 years – Bruegel

Divergence between the Euro Area and the European Union as a whole is almost non-existent

Where European Banks are Lending – Marc to Market

Lending at their strongest pace since 2008, but not to European counterparts, to Asia.

Italy must cut growth forecast, economy minister tells Corriere – BB

Italy must cut its output growth forecast, its economy minister told a newspaper, adding that economic weakness was a European problem that the region's governments needed to tackle together.

Europe: Stagnation, Default Or Devaluation – Evergreen Gavekal

Austerity hits growth in Finland – Danske Bank

BONDS

How Low Can Euro-Zone Yields Go? – WSJ

With yields already at rock bottom levels, how much good could central bank buying of sovereign debt possibly do to the wider euro-zone economy? Maybe not much. But it shouldn’t be written off completely.

The Greatest Depression? German Yields Now Negative Through 2017 – ZH

10-year Spain and Germany to record lows – BB

FRANCE

Hollande takes a hard line against anyone questioning his subservience – Krugman / NYT

What France Needs From Europe – BB

Yes, in the fullness of time, supply-side reform is indispensable. For now, though, monetary and fiscal accommodation should be Hollande's most urgent priorities.

Hollande Doubles Down to Impress Europe – PIIE

Facing record low approval ratings at home and skeptical European partners in Berlin, Frankfurt, and Brussels, the French president had little alternative but to double down on his recent political shift right toward a more mainstream European center-left social democracy for the French Socialists. Hollande is hoping that his commitment to austerity and reforms at a time when Europe is turning to a more activist fiscal policy earns him some appreciation from Germany and the European Central Bank (ECB).

UKRAINE / RUSSIA

Ukraine crisis update – Danske Bank

Markets groan as Ukraine unable to bridge gap with Russia – TradingFloor

Nadia Kazakova: Both Ukraine and Russia need a deal brokered for economic reasons * Russia is pushing Ukraine to recognise the separatists as a legitimate party * Ukraine preparing to tough it out, but faces harsh winter

Finland Upgrades NATO Ties After Condemning Russian Tactics – BB

EUROPEAN CENTRAL BANK

ECB easing - will it work? No. 3: Carry trades and 'hot potato' effect – Danske Bank

Still possible to do carry trades, but less attractive than earlier * The first three months of negative rates: signs of the ‘hot potato’

Can Mario Draghi save the euro again? – WaPo

Draghi only had to say "whatever it takes" to end Europe's financial crisis. But Draghi will actually have to do whatever it takes to end Europe's economic one. That's what he's trying to do now, but the eurocrats might not let him. They have their rules, after all.

BMO makes the case for ECB asset purchases – FT

ECB's Draghi has been 'overinterpreted', says Germany's Schaeuble – BB

ECB Hires Blackrock For ABS-Buying Advice – ZH

ECB says selects Blackrock to help develop ABS plan – BB

ECB’s Coeure Says ABS Push May Fail Unless States Back Debt – BB

“Europe is facing a very fundamental choice if it wants to move to an ABS market that is as deep and liquid as the U.S. market. To reach this goal, the securitization market will require a significantly different amount of public sponsoring than is currently the case.”

German consumer confidence drops for the first time in 20 months – TradingFloor

A single month, wiped nearly all gains of the boom of the last 12 months – Wolf Street

UNITED STATES

CBO Sees Wider U.S. Deficit as Slower Growth Cuts Revenue – BB

The budget deficit in the U.S. this year will be wider than predicted four months ago as weaker- than-expected economic growth in the first half hurt tax revenue, the Congressional Budget Office said.

Bringing It Back Home – Project Syndicate

An increasing number of American companies are making plans to shift their headquarters to Europe, in order to escape the United States’ uniquely unfavorable corporate tax rules. So what should US policymakers do?

ASIA

China: Is the housing market weakness cyclical or structural? – Danske Bank

Since 2006 there has been a substantial slowdown in new home investments. Our calculations suggest that structural growth in new home investments could already have declined below 7%...Nonetheless, at least 70% of the decline in new home investments over the past year appears to be cyclical and can largely be explained by tighter financial conditions.

Foreigners in the firing line as Chinese regulators take aim – TradingFloor

Pauline Loong: Foreign companies swept up in China’s anti-trust investigations may soon find company in misery. The threat of rising defaults in wealth management and other investment products is focusing regulatory attention on the liabilities of fund management companies and that of their foreign partners.

China property slump persists into August, data shows – FT

China Industrial Commodities Collapse, Sentiment Tumbles – ZH

OTHER

Daily Central Banks – WSJ

Blackstone’s Take: The ECB’s New Math: 5+5=QE * ECB and Fed Face Policy Divergence, For Now * Hungary Leaves Key Rate Unchanged After Two Years of Cutting * Europe’s Banks Boost Lending in Asia

Daily Macro – WSJ

Euro-zone bond yields slide to yet new record lows as expectations grow that the European Central Bank is lining up a massive dose of quantitative easing—perhaps focused on purchases of private sector assets, such as ABS, rather than government bonds. It has put the onus very strongly on ECB President Mario Draghi, who helped create this anticipation with his speech in Jackson Hole last weekend. Some are calling those comments “Whatever it Takes 2,” a rerun of his pledge from two years ago to save the euro, but this time he absolutely has to deliver concrete policy action. Words are not enough. If, after all this talk, nothing happens, the snapback in the market will be violent. Let’s hope he has the full backing of the Germans.

ECB and Fed Face Policy Divergence, For Now – WSJ

The linkages between the euro zone and the U.S. could make it difficult for the two central banks to run markedly different policies for long. “Either the global environment gets good enough for the euro-zone outlook to improve–then the ECB will not be on a different path as the Fed for long–or if the global outlook goes down, then the Fed would delay a policy tightening”, said Berenberg chief economist Holger Schmieding.

EURUSD: Further weakness ahead – TradingFloor

Sell EURUSD about 1.3175, stop 1.3204 initially, trailing stop to break-even and better once 1.3145 is broken, target 50% at 1.3115 and 50% at 1.3070

When FX wars become negative interest wars – FT

FX strategist at UBS has been wondering about what the Swiss National Bank may do if the ECB’s measures to weaken the euro begin to test its 1.20 EURCHF floor.

Dollar Slips, while Bond Market Rally Continues – Marc to Market

Another USD regime shift? – FT

BofAML’s David Woo: The momentum behind the outperformance of Eurozone peripheral debt and Eurozone high yield credit has been slowing since the start of Q3….Investors maybe rotating out of European bonds into US bonds… If we are right that foreign private buying of US bonds (on a currency unhedged basis ) is picking up, the USD will be the primary beneficiary.

Weekly Bond Update: Hoping to dodge a setback in Europe – TradingFloor

Explaining My Portfolio – The Short Side of Long

Where does one see value in current global macro environment * Silver’s bear market is now ongoing for almost 3 and half years * Sugar is one of the most disliked agricultural commodities… * Uranium is one of the most oversold industries in the world… * Australian economy has not suffered a recession for 23 years! * I do not want anything to do with US stocks or US bonds!!! * I am closely tracking Russian stocks & Gold Mining Juniors

FINNISH

Venäjä-pakotteiden ja vastapakotteiden talousvaikutukset vähäisiä – Verkkouutiset

EU:n ja muiden maiden rajoittavilla toimenpiteillä ja Venäjän tuontikiellolla on vain vähäisiä suoria vaikutuksia Venäjän ja sen kauppakumppaneiden kokonaistaloudelliseen toimintaan, arvioidaan keskiviikkona hallitukselle luovutetussa raportissa.

Onko rahapoliittisen keskustelun käymisessä mitään järkeä? – Tyhmyri

sekä kertauksena heinäkuulta 2013:

Vaarallinen elvytysharha – yhtä vaarallinen kuin säästämisen harha – Tyhmyri

Masokistinen talouspolitiikka johtaa talousanemiaan – Jan Hurri / TalSa

Hallitus tasapainoilee budjettiriihen linjauksia muka yllättyneenä talouden heikosta yleiskunnosta. Talouden anemian ei kuitenkaan pitäisi olla yllätys, sillä se on seurausta EU:n ja Suomenkin varta vasten harjoittamasta masokistisesta talouspolitiikasta. Samaa talouden temppurataa on kuitenkin tarkoitus jatkaa.

Stubb: Valtion budjetti pienenee taas – TalSA

Budjettiriihen ensimmäisen päivän tiedotustilaisuudessa ei saatu tarkkoja tietoja ensi vuoden budjetista ja rakennepaketista, vaan niitä joudutaan odottamaan huomiseen. Venäjä-pakotteista sen sijaan esitettiin huojentavia arvioita.

EKP jatkaa ajanpeluuta – Vesa Varhee / TalSa

Euroopan keskuspankin pääjohtaja Mario Draghi antoi viikonloppuna selvän viestin. EKP jatkaa elvyttävää rahapolitiikkaa ja on valmis erityistoimiin taloutta uhkaavan deflaation torjumiseksi.

Palkansaajien ansiot Q2 +1,2% – Tilastokeskus

Myönnettyjen rakennuslupien kuutiomäärä Q2 -11% – Tilastokeskus

Kuluttajien luottamus heikkeni elokuussa – Tilastokeskus

Konkurssien määrä tammi-heinäk. -4,5 prosenttia YoY – Tilastokeskus

Tuesday, August 26

26th Aug - A sit-down in Ukraine, French politics

25th Aug - Post-J-Hole, SPX breaks 2000, EUR dips

24th Aug - W/E: Off-Topic & Finnish

23rd Aug - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

UPDATED

The more interesting articles from the ending week's posts.

21st Aug - PMIs mixed, Jackson Hole ahead

20th Aug - Europe dissed

19th Aug - New Worries

Quote of the Day:

My guess is that the ECB will not do any of these things. It will continue blaming eurozone governments for not implementing structural reforms. Eventually, it will adopt a programme of asset purchases that is too small, which it will abandon prematurely at the first sign of recovery. The result is that the eurozone will end up looking like Japan, but with one difference. Countries whose policy goes off track have nowhere to go. The member states of a monetary union have alternatives. By failing to deliver on its inflation target, the ECB could give member countries a good reason to leave the eurozone: they could have a better central bank. My advice to the ECB: do not let that happen. (Münchau / FT)

18th Aug - Europe blamed

17th Aug - W/E: Linkfest

16th Aug - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

15th Aug - Eyes on Ukraine and Jackson Hole

14th Aug - The Horror of Euro

13th Aug - Floaters eye wages, EZ grave

12th Aug - Carnage Continues

Please find attached the latest cross-post from and by Macronomics - the trucker pill-solution to market anxieties!

11th Aug - Less panic, instead, genuine fear

9th Aug - W/E: The Link Fest

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

8th Aug - German bunds hit record-lows

7th Aug - The central banks did nothing

6th Aug - ECB ahead, macro worsens

5th Aug - European worries, for a change

4th Aug - After sell-off, central bank week

3rd Aug - W/E: Off-Topic & Finnish

2nd Aug - W/E: Weekly Support

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. Post will be updated as new stuff comes along.

1st Aug - Credit Guest: Nimrod

Here is the latest guest post by Macronomics:

31st Jul - Europe's disinflation worsens

29th Jul - IMF's reports, EU's sanctions

28th Jul - Waiting for US events

27th Jul - W/E: Markets & Economics

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

Here is a collection of some of this week's more interesting articles on Europe, US and Asia.

21st Jul - Continued Ukrainian hiccups

19th Jul - W/E: Off-Topic & Finnish

This weekend's links to interesting reads not related to markets / econ - you know, for the curious ones!

This weekend's links on markets, economics, EU etc.

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here.

17th Jul - Bad macro, worse geopolitics

16th Jul - Signs of market doubts

15th Jul - BoE: 'BIS crazy', Fed: slight hawkishness

Here is the latest cross-post from Macronomics:

13th Jul - W/E: Markets, Economics, Off-Topic, Finnish

Here are the links to the weekly roundups, reviews and also previews of the beginning week. Last week's 'Support' here. Note that some houses are already on holiday mood, thus several missing links...

11th Jul - W/E: Roundup of the world's week

Due to holidays and lack of daily posting, here are the articles and events of the ending week that I wanted to make a note of.

8th Jul - Credit Guest: The Golden Mean

Not everyone is having a blogging holiday. Macronomics is busy, and here's his latest:

Since there isn't much happening on the economic calendar, and the weather is nice after a terrible June (worst for like 50 years or so), I'm taking a blogging holiday. Back for the next weekend updates.

6th Jul - W/E: Linkfest

Here are the ”best” from my posts of the ending week. Last week’s edition here.

Last week:

Juncker named the next president of the EU Commission.

Italy’s Renzi demands breaking fiscal pacts

BIS warned of a bubble similar to 2007

US June employment report stronger than expected

ECB moves to less frequent meetings, begins to publish minutes

Sweden’s central bank surprised with a large cut, disagreement

BNP Paribas was made an example

BoE is scared of housing bubble

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